FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 9/3/22
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Max Scherzer ($11,200)
At his second lowest salary point in the past two months, Scherzer will have a revenge opportunity against a Washington Nationals' team with a 25.2% strikeout percentage and a .305 weighted on-base average (wOBA) including five batters with contact rates between 71.4% and 77.9%.
In his last six starts including an exceptional 11-strikeout performance last Sunday, the 38-year old ace has worked through a recent mini-slump, accounting for a 3.90 expected Fielding Independent Pitching rating, a 26.8% K-rate, and a 14.0% swinging strike rate through 40.2 innings.
With today's top fantasy projection at 45.2 and Saturday's highest strikeout prediction at 8.58, Scherzer is an elite play in all formats especially when examining his appetizing 4.03 value rating.
Robbie Ray ($10,700)
Despite a 3.8% jump in his salary, Ray currently stands as numberFire's second rated pitcher in a rematch against a Cleveland Guardians' lineup with a low .270 wOBA and a non-threatening 25.0% hard rate versus lefties in the past two seasons.
Among Saturday's four top ranked pitchers, the Mariners' veteran appears in the best current form since August, producing an impressive 2.84 xFIP, a 33.1% K-rate, and a 13.4% swinging strike percentage.
Considering his success against the Guardians in his last appearance (7 strikeouts, 0 earned runs in 7 innings) and his recent performances with seven or more Ks in his last five starts, Ray's expected numbers including a 37.5 fantasy projection and 7.0 expected Ks provide a bargain even at a heightened salary with a 3.51 value rating.
Corbin Burnes ($10,400)
After an eye-popping 6.3% salary decrease, Milwaukee's ace will take the mound against an Arizona Diamondbacks' unit with a .322 wOBA and a 21.3% K-rate including six hitters with strikeout percentages over 20.0% against right-handers in their last 695 plate appearances.
While Burnes has also seen a slight decline in his performance in his last 33.2 innings when analyzing his 3.73 xFIP, 24.5% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk percentage, and opposing 6.5% barrel rate, the 27-year old is still ranked fourth overall at his position with a 36.4 FanDuel point projection including today's third best expected strikeout mark at 7.16 and Saturday's sixth highest value rating at 3.5.
Shohei Ohtani ($9,900)
In an overall pitching rich slate, Ohtani provides a similar ceiling as numberFire's third rated hurler with a 36.9 fantasy expectation, 3.73 value rating, and 7.3 projected strikeouts versus a Houston Astros' team with a 20.1% K-rate and a .315 wOBA in this split.
Aside from an illness impacted start on August 21st, the 29-year old dual-talented stud has been in good form in his last 28.2 innings, producing a 25.8% K-rate, a 3.70 xFIP, and seven or more strikeouts in 66% of his last six starts.
After a disappointing three-game stretch with just five total runs on the board, the Dodgers will attempt to rebound in a favorable spot with a 5.2 run total against Sean Manaea.
In his last 49.0 innings, San Diego's left-hander has been in a concerning slump, accounting for a 4.19 xFIP, an alarming 12.7% opposing barrel rate, and three or more earned runs allowed in 70% of his last ten starts.
With most of his struggles occurring versus the opposite side of the plate (4.20 career xFIP in 660.0 innings), a core Dodgers' stack should contain their top right-handed bats including Mookie Betts (10.8% barrel rate, .485 expected slugging), Trea Turner (.346 expected wOBA, .446 expected slugging), Will Smith (10.7% barrel percentage, .484 expected slugging), Justin Turner (.333 expected wOBA, .416 expected slugging) and Trayce Thompson (14.6% barrel percentage, .488 expected slugging).
The Amazins' offense presents a similar situation with a 4.9 expected run total against a below-average lefty in Patrick Corbin.
Through his most recent 22.1 innings, the veteran left-hander continues to put up ugly metrics in his past five starts, recording an ugly 5.10 xFIP, a lacking 14.4% K-rate, and an opposing 12.7% opposing barrel percentage.
To best capture his trouble against right-handed power, Pete Alonso (.487 expected slugging, 12.3% barrel rate), Starling Marte (.431 expected slugging, .276 expected average), Francisco Lindor (8.1% barrel rate, .421 expected slugging), Darin Ruf (9.3% barrel percentage), Eduardo Escobar (8.2% barrel rate), and James McCann (.416 expected slugging, 7.4% barrel rate) all rate well enough for stacking.
With left-handed bats providing the most trouble versus Oller (0.94 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 2.08 HR/9), Adley Rutschman (8.2% barrel rate, .347 expected wOBA), Anthony Santander (10.9% barrel rate, .458 expected slugging), and Gunnar Henderson (10% barrel rate, .549 expected slugging) are premier targets while Ramon Urias (9.6% barrel rate, .423 expected slugging) and Ryan Mountcastle (.490 expected slugging, 13.2% barrel rate) provide overall impressive pop from the right side.