MLB Betting Guide: Friday 8/26/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or a moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Over 8.0 (-112) - 4 Stars
Two of baseball's least imposing starters in Texas should create some offense against these teams' will.
Detroit has been one of the worst offenses against righties all year, but Glenn Otto is no ordinary right-hander. The struggling prospect has a 5.21 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) with just a 17.4% strikeout rate. Importantly, the Tigers might just get put on base rather than earning it; Otto's 12.4% walk rate is the second-worst of any qualifying starter in MLB.
The Stripes will counter Otto with Tyler Alexander, who has just been far luckier. Alexander's 4.03 ERA has masked a 5.02 SIERA, and he's got a much lower strikeout rate (11.6%).
The Rangers, though, have performed well against lefties since the deadline. Their 122 wRC+ in this time is seventh-best in MLB.
Overall, our model sees 10.0 runs in this game versus the 8.0 given by the projected total. Texas alone has a projected total, per the model, of 5.25 runs. It expects the "over" to win out 62.8% of the time, making this a four-star bet against these 52.7% implied odds.
San Francisco Giants at Minnesota Twins
Giants ML (+110) - 2 Stars
According to our model, the wrong team is favored tonight in Minnesota.
The Giants hold a 52.5% chance to win this game, per the model. However, they're a slight road 'dog tonight at these 47.6% implied odds.
San Fransisco is sending lefty Alex Wood to the bump, and he's running out of time for regression to finally hit. His 4.54 ERA is far uglier than his 3.45 SIERA, and it's easy to see why. He's produced a solid punchout rate (23.6%) and has limited flyballs (30.8% rate).
Minnesota's offense -- now without Byron Buxton -- has struggled against lefties this month. They've posted just an 82 wRC+ and .132 ISO against them in August -- both of which are bottom-10 marks in MLB.
Joe Ryan will toe the slab for the Twins, and he's been a bit fortunate to hold his sub-4.00 ERA considering his 4.07 SIERA. Ryan's 54.1% flyball rate is a bit concerning given S.F. is 11th in baseball this year in total homers (142).
While the Giants haven't had a stellar month against righties (87 wRC+ in August), they've shown a lot of pop in their bats in this time (.163 ISO) to squeak across a couple of runs for Wood in his phenomenal matchup.
