MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/2/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
Over 8.5 (-115): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Pitchers Spencer Howard and Jordan Lyles are expected to start tonight, and our model sees both offenses doing work.
Howard has a 4.52 SIERA and 18.8% strikeout rate this season. His career SIERA stands at 4.73 across 104 1/3 career innings. Homers have been a massive issue for him, as he's surrendered 1.98 per nine for his career, including a hard-to-believe 2.97 per nine over 30 1/3 innings in 2022. Once a highly rated prospect, Howard just hasn't been good at the big-league level.
Once Howard is out of the game, the Baltimore Orioles' hitters -- an offense that is a solid 11th in wOBA over the last 30 days (.319) -- will get to take hacks against a Texas Rangers 'pen that is 10th-worst in reliever xFIP (4.08).
As for Lyles, he has a long track record of being a pedestrian hurler. He owns a 4.48 SIERA for his career and has posted a 4.77 SIERA in 356 innings since the start of 2020, giving up 1.67 dingers per nine in that span.
We project both of these offenses to thrive on Tuesday, forecasting a final score of 5.47-5.11 in favor of the O's. That's 10.58 total runs -- more than two runs clear of the listed total (8.5). We think the over wins out 67.4% of the time and mark it as a three-star bet (three-unit recommendation).
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Giants Moneyline (+126): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
It never feels good to bet against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but there is value on the underdog San Francisco Giants, according to our numbers.
San Francisco is sending Alex Wood to the mound. Wood has some pretty dang good numbers this season, sporting a 3.42 SIERA, 23.6% strikeout rate and 6.0% walk rate. He's limiting hard contact and fly-balls extremely well, conceding just a 24.8% hard-hit rate and 28.0% fly-ball rate.
While the Dodgers' offense is a chore for any pitcher, Wood checks some boxes, and LA hasn't been quite as lethal against lefties, recording a .332 wOBA in the split, compared to a .341 wOBA versus right-handers.
Tyler Anderson is up for the Dodgers. Anderson has pitched well this season, with his 3.82 SIERA a career-best mark by a good distance. With that said, his strikeout rate is only 20.6%, and the Giants' platoon-heavy offense is much better against lefties (.328 wOBA) than righties (.307).
We have this game as basically a coin-flip, which means there is value on the San Fran side. We project the Giants to win 50.2% of the time and rate taking them on the moneyline as a two-star wager.
