3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 7/25/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Freddie Freeman To Hit a Home Run (+360)/Mookie Betts To Hit a Home Run (+280)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have an elite matchup tonight for their home run props.
My thoughts about the Dodgers' matchup tonight can be boiled down to one thing -- it's not if they are going to hit home runs, it's how many are they going to hit?
They have an extremely favorable matchup against Paolo Espino, a pitcher who struggles versus both left-handed and right-handed hitters.
This season against lefties, Espino is allowing a .436 SLG, 4.29 xFIP, 1.71 HR/9, 45.8% fly-ball rate, and 41.0% hard-contact rate. Facing righties, he is allowing a .437 SLG, 4.34 xFIP, 1.42 HR/9, 44.0% fly-ball rate, and 32.0% hard-contact rate. Not good!
Those are some rough numbers to be sporting heading into a matchup against one of the league's best offenses. It's no surprise to see the Dodgers rocking a slate-high 5.32 implied run total tonight.
We turn to Freddie Freeman, who comes in with a 174 wRC+, .233 ISO, 35.9% fly-ball rate, and 36.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Mookie Betts is carrying a 135 wRC+, .256 ISO, 48.6% fly-ball rate, and 36.5% hard-contact rate in the split.
We're dealing with two of the elite hitters in the game, who are both in a great matchup. Of course, we should also look to add Freeman To Record an RBI (+115) and Betts To Record an RBI (+115).
Jake Odorizzi Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-112)
When it comes to a strikeout prop tonight, the under on Jake Odorizzi is a spot to target.
Odorizzi's prop is sitting at 4.5 tonight, and he is set to take on the Oakland Athletics, who he has faced in each of his last two starts. In those two starts, he posted 7 and 5 strikeouts, but the tables will turn, and he will hit the under tonight. Conventional MLB wisdom, backed by analytical studies, shows that a pitcher struggles in successive starts against the same team.
This is not to mention that Odorizzi simply isn't a big strikeout pitcher to begin with. He comes in with an 18.3% strikeout rate and a 9.4% swinging-strike rate this season, both far below the league average.
Odorizzi isn't a pitcher who can often rack up tons of strikeouts, so I'm going with the under tonight.
Willy Adames To Record an RBI (+135)
The Milwaukee Brewers have a solid 4.84 implied run total tonight and are a strong spot for player props.
The offense for the Brew Crew is rolling right now, and they will look to continue that tonight in their final game against the Colorado Rockies. Speaking of the Rockies, they will have Kyle Freeland on the bump tonight, a pitcher we should be looking to target. This season, he comes in with a .424 SLG, .322 wOBA, 4.55 xFIP, and 14.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters.
Freeland is not a pitcher you need to fear on the mound, and we should be siding with the Brewers' hitters. That leads us to Willy Adames, who is carrying a 106 wRC+, .250 ISO, .323 wOBA, 56.5% fly-ball rate, and 37.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handers.
It's a great matchup overall for Adames and the Brewers, so I'll also look to add Adames 2+ RBI (+460).