MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 7/21/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins
Miami Moneyline (-112): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
It looks like it'll be Jon Gray and Pablo Lopez getting the nods in this Thursday afternoon tilt, and we like the Miami Marlins to win a little more than oddsmakers do.
Lopez is once again turning in an excellent campaign. He's got SIERAs of 3.67, 3.49 and 3.98 over the last three seasons (starting with 2022 and working backward). His 13.3% swinging-strike rate this year is a career-best clip by 1.2 percentage points, and he should be able to have success versus a Texas Rangers offense that sits only 19th in wOBA (.305) with the 12th-highest strikeout rate (23.3%).
You can say a lot of the same things for Gray. The matchup with Miami is a nice one, and the Texas Rangers' righty has been dealing, showing a sparkling 3.37 SIERA and 27.3% strikeout rate through the first half.
But while Gray's overall numbers are stellar, his away splits are much worse than his home stats. On the road, Gray has only a 23.9% strikeout rate, compared to a 34.1% mark at home. He was tagged for five earned runs apiece in road outings against the poor offenses of the Cleveland Guardians and Oakland Athletics.
We give Miami a 59.1% chance to win. The -120 moneyline price implies win odds of just 54.5%. There's solid value here, and we rate taking Miami to win as a two-star bet (two-unit recommendation).
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
San Francisco Moneyline (+124): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Carlos Rodon and Mitch White are listed as the probable pitchers for this NL West clash. As long as that's the case, we have a slight lean on the San Francisco Giants to win.
Rodon is facing one of the toughest possible matchups for any hurler, but he can get the job done. The Giants' southpaw owns a 3.15 SIERA, 30.8% strikeout rate and 14.0% swinging-strike rate. He's permitted just two earned runs over 10 innings in two starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2022.
While LA is loaded with talent, they aren't quite as potent against lefties, sporting a .323 wOBA and 22.2% strikeout rate in the split -- worse than their .340 wOBA and 21.7% strikeout rate against right-handers.
White hasn't been real good in 2022, pitching to a 4.11 SIERA, 21.1% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate. He's had an especially hard time against lefty sticks, striking out only 15.9% of hitters in the split while allowing 1.35 homers per nine. That should be a problem against the platoon-heavy Giants, who will likely pack their lineup with a bunch of left-handed bats.
It's never easy to bet against the Dodgers, but the value is on the San Francisco side, per our algorithm. The Giants' +124 moneyline price implies win odds of 44.6%. We give them a 48.5% chance to win. Taking the Giants on the moneyline is a one-star wager.