3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 7/7/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Austin Riley To Hit a Home Run (+260)
Ronald Acuna Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+280)
The Atlanta Braves have a juicy 5.66 implied run total tonight and are in a spot for some home runs.
When it comes to the Braves lineup, they can get the home runs going early and often in nearly any matchup, which is what we should see tonight. They are going up against Matthew Liberatore from the St. Louis Cardinals, and Liberatore only has 20.2 innings pitched in the majors since this is his rookie year, so take things with a grain of salt.
He is allowing 2.25 HR/9, a 6.03 xFIP, a .629 SLG, a .421 wOBA, a 52.8% fly-ball rate, and a 44.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. It's a small sample, but his projections on Fangraphs for the season don't have him too far off those numbers.
This puts all of the Braves' right-handed hitters in a great spot, and that should start with Ronald Acuna and Austin Riley. They are my top two for today, but you can also make the case for Dansby Swanson (+330), Travis d'Arnaud (+480), and Marcell Ozuna (+340).
Acuna comes in with a 160 wRC+, a .250 ISO, a .405 wOBA, a 28.1% fly-ball rate, and a 31.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. His fly-ball and hard-contact rate are a bit lower this season compared to his career numbers, so I'm not too worried about it.
Riley is sporting a 181 wRC+, a .358 ISO, a .436 wOBA, a 40.7% fly-ball rate, and a 53.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.
Of course, we should also look to add Acuna To Record an RBI (+115) and Riley To Record an RBI (-115).
Trevor Williams Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-134)
For a strikeout prop tonight, we are turning to Trevor Williams of the New York Mets.
This is a very low strikeout prop for Williams, and he has an easy matchup versus the Miami Marlins to push this over.
In the grand scheme of things, Williams is an average pitcher, who comes in with a 21.4% strikeout rate and a 10.5% swinging-strike rate, which are both below the league average this season. I'm not here to try and convince you Williams is some amazing pitcher, but this is a low prop, and Williams has been consistent.
Williams has posted at least four strikeouts in 5 of his last 10 outings -- three of which were at 5 strikeouts.
The Marlins come in with a 22.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which should put Williams in a good spot. Frankly, I'm more interested in Williams 5+ Strikeouts (+164) rather than lay the juice.
Jose Abreu To Record an RBI (+115)
The Chicago White Sox have a solid 4.79 implied run total tonight, and we should look there for some player props.
The White Sox are taking on Beau Brieske, who is struggling in his first year in the MLB. So far this season, he is allowing a .364 wOBA, a .537 SLG, a 4.74 xFIP, 2.37 HR/9, a 43.3% fly-ball rate, and a 34.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. It's been a rough start for the rookie and now against a very right-handed heavy lineup from the White Sox, and that is likely to continue tonight.
We turn to Jose Abreu, who is on fire right now with an 11-game hitting streak in the works. Six of those games were multi-hit games. Overall this season, Abreu is carrying a 141 wRC+, a .364 wOBA, a .158 ISO, a 36.8% fly-ball rate, and a 39.7% hard-contact rate.
Outside of a slightly lower ISO, Abreu is elite across the board and is locked in at the plate right now, so I'm also going to Abreu 2+ RBI (+440).
