3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 7/6/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Freddie Freeman To Hit a Home Run (+360)/Cody Bellinger To Hit a Home Run (+390)
It's not a matter of IF the Los Angeles Dodgers will hit home runs tonight, it's a matter of, "how many will they hit"?
The Dodgers are sporting a slate-high 5.55 implied run total and are primed for a massive offensive showing tonight. They are set to go up against Jose Urena, who is expected to make his Colorado Rockies debut. Urena has only 7.2 innings pitched this season, so we'll look back to last year when he had 100.2 total innings pitched.
Last season, Urena allowed a .399 wOBA, a .543 SLG, a 5.71 xFIP, 1.52 HR/9, a 38.1% hard-contact rate, and a 17.4% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed hitters. Those are truly terrible numbers, and it puts the Dodgers' powerful lineup in a fantastic spot to reach or exceed that run total.
This leads us to Freddie Freeman, who comes in with a 150 wRC+, a .384 wOBA, a .198 ISO, a 38.0% fly-ball rate, and a 36.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Next, we see Cody Bellinger with a 98 wRC+, a .307 wOBA, a .228 ISO, a 52.0% fly-ball rate, and a 35.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
It's a legitimately great matchup for the Dodgers, and we should see plenty of runs tonight. Freeman To Record an RBI (+110) and Bellinger To Record an RBI (+125).
Luis Severino Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
The New York Yankees will have Luis Severino on the mound tonight, and we are going to his strikeout prop.
With a strikeout prop sitting at 6.5, I'm going with the over for Severino, who is set to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates. This season, the Pirates are holding a 25.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (second-highest in the league). This puts opposing pitchers in a very favorable matchup for their strikeout props -- thus pointing us to Severino tonight.
This year, Severino comes in with a 28.9% strikeout rate and a 13.3% swinging-strike rate, both of which are in the top 13 of the league among pitchers who have at least 70 innings pitched this year. Severino has punched at least seven out in 7 of his last 10 games -- including two games where he posted 10 strikeouts.
Given his consistency and the upside from the matchup, going to Severino 8+ Strikeouts (+200) and Severino 9+ Strikeouts (+370) are both on the table tonight.
Kyle Tucker To Record an RBI (+105)
With a 4.90 implied run total, the Houston Astros are set for another strong offensive showing.
The Astros are rolling right now on an eight-game winning streak, and they've scored four runs or more in six of those games. The production is coming from up and down their lineup, which should continue tonight versus Brad Keller.
This season, Keller is allowing a .429 SLG, a .326 wOBA, a 4.32 xFIP, 1.67 HR/9, and an 18.9% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed hitters.
We turn to Kyle Tucker, who comes in with elite numbers against right-handed pitchers, sporting a 138 wRC+, a .216 ISO, a .357 wOBA, a 48.9% fly-ball rate, and a 34.8% hard-contact rate. He hits in the heart of the Astros' lineup and should be in a spot to knock in some runs.
I'm adding Tucker 2+ RBI (+370).