MLB Betting Guide: Friday 7/1/22
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Marlins Moneyline (+116): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Not only does Miami sit seven games in front of the Nats in the National League East, but the Marlins have a huge edge in run differential, sporting a +5 clip to Washington's -109 mark. And it's not like the pitching matchup -- Josiah Gray against Trevor Rogers -- is clearly in the Nats' favor.
Yet, the Marlins are +116 to win, and our model sees value.
Rogers is having a poor season. After he posted a sterling 3.72 SIERA and 28.5% strikeout rate last season, looking like one of the better young pitchers in the game, Rogers has scuffled to a 4.66 SIERA and 20.0% strikeout rate. Some of it -- not all -- is bad luck. Despite a 25.5% hard-hit rate, which is well below his 33.5% clip from 2021, Rogers is allowing 1.43 dingers per nine this season after giving up 0.41 per nine a year ago. His average fastball velocity (94.6 MPH) is the same as it was last campaign.
Rogers has shown some signs lately of snapping out of it, putting up single-game swinging-strike rates of 23.7% and 14.1% over his past four. He can have success against a Washington offense that is only 20th in wOBA versus southpaws (.308). In fact, he's done just that over two starts against the Nats this year, permitting three earned runs in 12 innings.
Gray has swing-and-miss stuff, recording a 25.3% strikeout rate in 146 career innings. His big problems are fly balls and walks. He's got a 10.4% walk rate this season after registering a 10.7% walk rate in 2021. He's surrendered a 51.8% fly-ball rate for his career, which has led to 2.10 dingers per nine.
The matchup against Miami is tougher than you might assume, as the Marlins check in eighth in wOBA (.320) against right-handers.
We project Miami to win by a score of 5.19-4.87 and give the Marlins a 51.2% chance to win. Their +116 moneyline price implies win odds of only 46.3%. Taking Miami to win is a one-star wager (one-unit recommendation), per our model.
Under 8.5 (+100): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Bassitt broke out last season, and he's more than held those gains, pitching to a 3.57 SIERA and 25.7% strikeout rate. He's rolling right now, too, sporting a 29.0% strikeout rate and 2.99 xFIP across his last six starts.
He should find joy against the Texas Rangers, a team with an offense that ranks just 25th in wOBA (.293) against right-handers this season. Texas' lineup isn't the same as it was a year ago, but Bassitt dominated them in three outings in 2021, holding the Rangers to one earned run in each game.
Otto is the worse pitcher and has the more difficult matchup. This is the side of things that worries me as far as the under is concerned, although there are some reasons to back Otto.
While the New York Mets have been a quality offense this season, they're just 23rd in wOBA (.297) over the last 30 days. And Otto has been fairly solid if you remove a pair of nightmare outings -- a six-run dud last time out and an eight-run blowup in mid-May. I know we can't just pretend those bad starts didn't happen, but in his three starts prior to giving up six runs in his most recent appearance, Otto had permitted just four earned runs over 16 innings while fanning 15.
The bullpens can aid the cause, too. The Mets are tied for 4th in reliever xFIP while Texas ranks 16th.
Our model has the final score being 4.83-3.49 in the Mets' favor. That's 8.32 total runs, and we give the under a 52.1% chance to hit, assigning it a one-star rating.