3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for Friday 7/1/22
Stacks are an integral part of daily fantasy baseball. They can push a team to the top of a GPP by driving upside. However, they're also viable in cash games, namely smaller (two-person or three-person) stacks that mitigate the volatility of a full four-person stack.
This article is your home throughout the 2022 Major League Baseball season for the day's top stacks. The primary goal is to identify the highest-scoring upside stack. Still, game theory will play a role in contrarian stacks making the cut as GPP options. Nevertheless, chalky stacks will make appearances in this space, too.
Beyond my analysis in this space, I strongly suggest numberFire premium members using our DFS Sharpstack tool and hitting heat map tool. The DFS Sharpstack helps plug stacks into optimized lineups, allowing you to change parameters and lock or exclude players and teams. Meanwhile, the heat map offers a one-stop-shop for the opposing starting pitcher, implied total, park factor, and other notable goodies.
Now, let's look at the top stacks on today's main slate.
Games at Coors Field are never contrarian, barring poor weather conditions driving gamers away. Still, sometimes it's okay to eat chalk. For instance, the Colorado Rockies are an attractive stack that will probably be chalky tonight.
Sure, Merrill Kelly's 3.64 ERA, 3.64 Expected ERA (xERA), and 4.05 xFIP don't scream to stack against him. Still, they aren't world-beater marks, and his low strikeout rate won't do him any favors tonight. Kelly's 20.2 percent strikeout rate has been two points lower than the MLB average. In addition, the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen is below average, owning the 10th-highest ERA (4.28).
The Rockies are in a position to do damage at the dish tonight, something they've done better than any other club at home this year, resulting in an MLB-high .350 wOBA . As a result, Colorado is stackable from top to bottom. Still, a right-handed slugger is the top option from this stack. Interestingly, Kelly has been worse against righties than lefties since last season, ceding a .335 wOBA to right-handed batters.
Revisiting the teased slugger, it's C.J. Cron ($4,100). He's the must-use option in this stack. In 450 plate appearances at home since signing with the Rockies last year, he's had a .408 OBP, .327 ISO, and .446 wOBA.
The Diamondbacks are the visitors to Coors Field, and they'll likely be chalky, too. Still, like the Rockies, this is good chalk to eat. Additionally, the matchup is better for Arizona.
First, Antonio Senzatela is terrible. In 12 starts, he's had a 4.66 ERA, which has been lucky relative to his 5.85 xERA. Second, Senzatela is giving to lefties and righties. Since last year, he's coughed up a .349 wOBA to lefties and a .333 wOBA to righties.
Moreover, the fun doesn't have to end for the Diamondbacks when Senzatela gets the hook. Colorado's relievers have had the second-highest ERA (4.70) this year. Thus, all of Arizona's hitters have a case for usage.
Nonetheless, Alek Thomas ($2,700) and David Peralta ($2,500) are two especially interesting options, doubling as cap-friendly picks. Thomas has had a .206 ISO and 119 wRC+ against righties in his rookie season. Meanwhile, a revamped swing geared to lifting the ball has helped Peralta produce a .235 ISO and 124 wRC+ against righties.
Not all of the stacks in this space will be chalky. Instead, the Baltimore Orioles are a high-ceiling contrarian selection. Sadly, promising righty Joe Ryan hasn't been the same pitcher since returning from the COVID-IL. Obviously, COVID has impacted people differently. So, he may be working his way back to full strength.
While this might seem like rampant speculation, the righty's velocity has plummeted. According to FanGraphs, in Ryan's second through seventh starts, his fastball had an average velocity of 92.4 mph. In his three starts since returning from the COVID-IL, it's slipped to 90.9 mph.
Sadly, his strikeout rate has taken a nosedive with his velocity. In the pre-IL timeframe, Ryan had a 24.7 percent strikeout rate and 11.5 percent swinging-strike rate. However, in his previous three starts, he's had a 15.7 percent strikeout rate and a 7.2 percent swinging-strike rate.
My favorite way to attack Ryan's low strikeout rate is with power. Thus, Anthony Santander ($2,900), Ryan Mountcastle ($3,200), Cedric Mullins ($3,400), and Adley Rutschman ($2,700) are the most enticing picks. Since last year, facing righties, Santander has had a .205 ISO, Mountcastle has muscled up for a .219 ISO, and Mullins has led the O's with a .220 ISO.
Finally, Rutschman has had a .215 ISO against righties in his young big-league career. However, after a slow start, he's had a blistering .306 ISO in his last 67 plate appearances.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.