FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 6/27/22

We have some big names on Monday's nine-game offering, but it isn't necessarily the most straightforward pitching slate. On the other hand, Coors Field is the clear-cut top spot for offense, and it's the usual conundrum of whether to eat the chalk or look elsewhere in GPPs.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitchers

George Kirby ($9,000): Earlier in the season, guys like Kevin Gausman and Lucas Giolito would've been shoo-ins among tonight's pitching options, but recent struggles have lowered their stock this month.

That bumps up Kirby perhaps by default, and he's aided by an appealing matchup against the Orioles (3.41 implied total). While the young right-hander doesn't have mind-blowing marks through nine starts, his 3.35 SIERA, 23.3% strikeout rate, and 3.0% walk rate are a solid foundation, and he's now posted quality starts in four of his last five.

Baltimore's active roster has a 23.1% strikeout rate versus righties, but it's worth noting that Kirby has produced more strikeouts versus lefties so far (25.7%), so he could actually have more upside facing a lefty-heavy lineup.

Overall, though, Kirby appears to have the path of least resistance towards a positive outing, and that may very well be enough tonight.

Kevin Gausman ($9,500): When looking over season-long numbers, you could argue that Gausman is the night's top hurler, sporting a 3.10 SIERA, 26.1% strikeout rate, and 3.9% walk rate.

However, his strikeouts have steadily declined each month, following up a brilliant April (32.6%) with sizable dips in May (26.2%) and June (19.1%). That's not exactly the trend we're looking for.

But the good news is that Gausman has generally maintained a high swinging-strike rate these past two months, going above 13% in 7 of the last 10 starts, and he's coming off an encouraging seven-strikeout performance versus the White Sox.

The Red Sox may not be the ideal opponent to keep the momentum going (20.3% strikeout rate versus righties), but two of Gausman's best starts came against Boston earlier this season, and he also has a 10-strikeout game against a tough Houston offense.

Gausman's recent play probably keeps him behind Kirby, but few on the slate have shown the ceiling he possessed earlier this year, and that alone should keep him firmly in the tournament conversation.

Lucas Giolito ($8,000): While Gausman has had his issues, it's been even worse for Giolito lately, who's been eviscerated in back-to-back starts by the Astros and Blue Jays. He's only tallied three punchouts in three of his last four starts, resulting in a poor 16.7% strikeout rate this month.

If we look at Giolito's campaign as a whole, he has a promising 3.69 SIERA and 27.2% strikeout rate, but a 9.3% walk rate has limited his ability to pitch deep into games. He's reached six innings just 4 times in his last 10 starts, and he's yet to crack 50 FanDuel points all year.

While none of this inspires confidence, this is a low salary for someone we know is capable of more, and the Angels are a dangerous but strikeout-happy bunch (26.9% versus righties).

Giolito is the ultimate wild card tonight, but on a slate lacking obvious upside, he could be worth the dice roll.

Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers

The chalk stack will be none other than the Los Angeles Dodgers, who possess a slate-high 6.53 implied total at Coors Field against Chad Kuhl.

In terms of results, Kuhl has held his own in 2022, but his underlying numbers all point to regression. Across 13 starts, he's put up 4.84 SIERA, 17.5% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate, and 38.6% ground-ball rate, and none of that looks built to withstand the pitfalls of Coors.

Kuhl has been more vulnerable versus lefties, as well, showing a 5.16 xFIP, 16.1% strikeout rate, and 13.0% walk rate in the split. That bumps up Freddie Freeman ($4,500) as one of the slate's top plays, and Max Muncy ($3,300), Gavin Lux ($3,000), and Cody Bellinger ($3,400) are other beneficiaries.

Outside of a low walk rate in same-sided matchups, Kuhl isn't showing much to scare us on that side of the plate, either, so righties can be safely mixed in. Trea Turner ($4,600) continues to be a fantastic power/speed threat out of the leadoff slot, and Will Smith ($3,900) combines stellar plate skills with some pop out of the three-hole.

New York Yankees

Paul Blackburn has been a bright spot for the Athletics this season, and he turned some heads early in the season with a noticeable bump in strikeouts through early May.

However, as time has gone on, Blackburn's peripheral numbers have regressed towards his career levels, and it's fair to wonder how long he can maintain a sub-3.00 ERA. His 17.6% strikeout rate remains a career high, but that's hardly the firepower necessary to dispatch the New York Yankees.

Blackburn lacks punchouts against both sides of the plate, so his best weapon is a 56.3% ground-ball rate versus righties. However, a low strikeout rate is a nightmare against the likes of Aaron Judge ($4,100) and Giancarlo Stanton ($3,500), who are first and second, respectively, in barrels per plate apperance this season. Josh Donaldson ($2,600) rarely hits grounders (36.9%), which should help him contribute, too.

That ground-ball rate disappears for Blackburn versus lefties (42.5%), so Anthony Rizzo ($3,700) should have an easier time knocking one out, and if Joey Gallo ($2,500) can actually connect, he can make use of his high barrel rate (19.4%).

Texas Rangers

Left-hander Kris Bubic has not been a bright spot for the Royals, and things aren't likely to get much better. Bubic pairs a 19.5% strikeout rate with a 12.6% walk rate, and a 37.4% ground-ball rate isn't going to do much to prevent the home run ball.

The obvious play is to stack up righties against the southpaw, but he's consistently struggled to a 5.76 xFIP over a 33 2/3 career innings versus lefty sticks, opening the door for just about anyone you please on the Texas Rangers.

Among the righties, Adolis Garcia ($4,300) is having a productive season with a .231 ISO and some speed upside, but that salary is getting up there, so you can also opt for Marcus Semien ($3,100), Mitch Garver ($2,500), and Jonah Heim ($2,600) as value pieces in the top half of the order.

Corey Seager ($3,500) and Nathaniel Lowe ($2,900) both have strong track records in lefty-lefty matchups, and perhaps they'll get less attention against a left-handed pitcher.