3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Monday 6/13/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament. That could be a low-salaried pitcher piling up strikeouts, or it could be a low-salaried hitter swatting a long ball.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Juan Yepez, 1B/OF, Cardinals ($2,600)
Tonight's top stack appears to be in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are playing host to the Pirates, and the visitors are starting right-hander Mitch Keller. Keller's 5.26 ERA might be a bit unlucky given he's got a 4.45 FIP, but he's still not a swing-and-miss hurler. He's posted just an 8.6% swinging-strike rate, and bad things can happen when leaving balls in play.
The Buccos' bullpen also has the fifth-worst xFIP in baseball (4.30).
The young bats in the Cardinals order just aren't that high-salaried on Monday, including Juan Yepez. Yepez will likely hit cleanup, and he's tattooed right-handers for a .863 OPS and a .208 isolated power (ISO).
Yepez and Brendan Donovan are both low-salaried punts to get back towards Paul Goldschmidt and Tommy Edman on the top end of this stack.
Lourdes Gurriel, OF, Blue Jays ($2,500)
The red-hot Toronto Blue Jays draw a struggling rookie tonight, and they'll play a factor in tournaments one way or another.
Kyle Bradish will toe the slab for the Orioles, and Bradish has been torched by same-handed bats. Righties have a whopping 1.158 OPS against Bradish, and that's verified by a 43.8% hard-hit rate. He's just struggled mightily against that side, and the Jays have so many quality right-handed sticks.
They're not all at lofty salaries, though. Beyond George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette, you're mostly below $3,000 on FanDuel with the rest of the order. That includes Lourdes Gurriel, who is noteworthy given his reverse splits.
Gurriel has a 109 wRC+ against right-handers compared to just a 74 wRC+ against lefties. That's the opposite trend of Santiago Espinal, Teoscar Hernandez, and Matt Chapman, but truly, Bradish has been so poor against righties that all are absolutely in play.
Toronto has a 5.52 implied team run total tonight, so fade them at your own peril.
Jordan Luplow, OF, Diamondbacks ($2,500)
Two of the worst teams by record will square off tonight in Arizona, but the edge on the mound lies with the Snakes.
They'll start their ace Merrill Kelly, and the Reds will counter with their worst pitcher in terms of ERA, Mike Minor. Minor's 8.46 ERA is backed up with a 10.46 FIP, so it's fair to say he's struggled. The long ball has been Minor's biggest issue, ceding 5.4 homers per nine.
Cincinnati's bullpen also has the second-highest xFIP in baseball (4.50), so it won't get more challenging if and when Minor exits the game.
The D-Backs had struggled to open the year against lefties, but the emergence of Jordan Luplow has helped. Luplow's .334 wOBA against southpaws has set the tone well at the top of their lineup, and he's even added four homers.
With Lance Lynn at minimum salary, it'll actually be a contrarian move to use a value stack with an ace, and the Diamondbacks have as solid of an argument as any.
