3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 6/13/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
George Springer To Hit a Home Run (+385)
The Toronto Blue Jays have a juicy 5.22 implied run total tonight and are primed for plenty of offense.
In what could be the most lopsided matchup of the slate, the Blue Jays are in a spot to hit multiple home runs. They are taking on Kyle Bradish from the Baltimore Orioles, who is allowing far too many of them to righties this season.
To be exact, Bradish is allowing 4.12 HR/9 to righties, along with a 5.29 xFIP, a .716 SLG, a 42.2% fly-ball rate, and a 43.8% hard-contact rate. This is his first year in the MLB, and he has only 37.2 innings pitched, so we have to take this with a grain of salt, but the numbers are awful right now -- and very much worth attacking.
We turn to George Springer, who comes in with a 134 wRC+, a .241 ISO, a .513 SLG, and a 39.1% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
Considering Bradish struggles versus right-handed hitters, it's reasonable to consider Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+315) or Bo Bichette (+370) for home runs as well tonight.
Cristian Javier Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)
A favorable matchup awaits Cristian Javier (and his strikeout prop) tonight.
Javier is set to take on the Texas Rangers where we see his strikeout prop sitting at 5.5. Javier is holding a solid 30.4% strikeout rate on the season, which is the highest of any pitcher on today's slate, and the ninth-highest in the league among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched this season.
However, Javier has only posted four strikeouts in each of his last two starts due to the fact he pitched only 4.0 and 3.2 innings. Long story short, his recent box scores don't look amazing, but it was the lack of work that prevented him from piling up the strikeouts.
Tonight. he is taking on the Rangers, who come in with a 23.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (ninth-worst in the league).
Considering Javier posted nine strikeouts in back-to-back starts prior to his short outings, it's reasonable to look at his alternate prop of 7+ Strikeouts (+164) due to his overall skill and a favorable matchup.
Christian Walker To Record an RBI (+120)
With a solid 4.60 implied run total, the Arizona Diamondbacks are in a good spot to put up some runs tonight.
The Diamondbacks will be taking on Mike Minor, who only has 8.1 innings pitched this season, so we'll look to his stats from last year.
In 2021, Minor allowed a .456 SLG, a 4.44 xFIP, 1.60 HR/9, and a 42.5 fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. Minor has been a pitcher we've attacked for several seasons, and we're not stopping now.
Christian Walker is a solid hitter and comes in with a 170 wRC+, a .311 ISO, a .419 wOBA, a 47.5% fly-ball rate, and a 37.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. It's a truly favorable matchup for a hitter in the middle of the lineup and puts him in a great spot to pick up an RBI.
Adding Walker To Record 2+ RBI (+430) is also very much on the table with this matchup.