MLB Betting Guide: Friday 6/10/22

With Kyle Gibson on the bump, should we back the Phillies to win an eighth straight contest tonight?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or a moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies Moneyline (-152) - 2 Stars

Let's be honest, there's one reason you get the Phillies tonight at just -152 odds. Zac Gallen is opposing them.

However, the Diamondbacks' ace is flirting with disaster recently. In his last three starts, Gallen has a 5.29 ERA and allowed a 38.9% hard-hit rate. While that hasn't manifested in horrible outings, he also faced three teams (Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Atlanta) with a 94 wRC+ or lower against right-handed pitching.

Philadelphia has a 103 wRC+ against righties overall, and they've been scorching since firing Joe Girardi a week ago. They've won seven straight games, scoring at least six runs in all but one of them.

Arizona also is a below-average team against righties themselves (95 wRC+), and Philadelphia's bullpen has turned the corner in the past week with a 2.75 xFIP as well.

numberFire's model believes Kyle Gibson and the Phillies win this battle 64.8% of the time. These odds imply just a 60.3% chance to win, which rates out as a two-star recommendation to back the Phils tonight.

Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians

Over 7.5 (-114) - 3 Stars

In an above-average hitter's park, perhaps regression comes for Paul Blackburn and Triston McKenzie tonight.

Blackburn's rise was thoroughly unexpected after a 5.87 ERA last year, but he's as good of a case for any Athletics player on an All-Star team this year with a 2.83 mark. However, Blackburn's SIERA (3.83) is also much higher, and he's struggled with his hard-hit rate (40.7%).

McKenzie is a highly-regarded prospect, so his 3.10 ERA through the first part of the MLB season isn't as surprising to some. McKenzie's 4.23 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) -- headlined by a 43.4% hard-hit rate -- indicates that he might be closer to a blowup start than his results suggest though.

The Guardians may lead the way in terms of scoring today. They're seventh in MLB with a .730 OPS against right-handed pitching, and the A's are dead-last in that category (.597). Oakland's bullpen also has the sixth-highest xFIP in baseball (4.23).

Our model projects 9.15 runs overall in this one and sees it sailing over the 7.5-run mark a whopping 63.4% of the time. That's good for a three-star wager.

Miami Marlins at Houston Astros

Over 7.5 (-118) - 2 Stars

Our model is rejecting a pitcher's duel in Houston just as it did in Cleveland.

In H-Town, Luis Garcia has a solid 3.07 ERA, but a 4.04 xFIP is a bit of cause for concern. He's struggled just a touch with the long ball, posting 1.29 homers per nine innings this season.

On the other side, Pablo Lopez's xFIP (3.10) is still tremendous, but it's also a lot higher than his sparkling 2.18 ERA. These are -- no doubt -- two solid hurlers. It's just a matter of what they're up against tonight.

Both the Astros and Marlins crush right-handed pitching. They're ninth and fourth, respectively, in terms of OPS against righties. This would be a tough draw for any orthodox-handed pitcher.

Our model expects 8.62 runs in this one overall, which smashes the 7.5-run total currently projected. With it forecasting 58.9% odds to hit the over in general, this bet is given a two-star conviction.