3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 6/9/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Matt Olson To Hit a Home Run (+350)
The Atlanta Braves have a slate-high 5.16 implied run total and are primed for plenty of offense.
An offense that has plenty of power is always a good spot to look for some home runs, and we saw that on display last night when the Braves had four home runs.
They are in a spot to continue that trend because they are going up against JT Brubaker, a pitcher we absolutely want to target tonight. This season, Brubaker is allowing a .466 SLG, 4.98 xFIP, 1.67 HR/9, 53.2% fly-ball rate, and 37.7% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.
Those are truly bad numbers, and it puts Matt Olson in a great spot to go deep. Olson comes in with a 141 wRC+, .236 ISO, .378 ISO, 43.1% hard-contact rate, and 33.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this year. A little bit of wind blowing out in Atlanta is always a nice boost for a hitter who's already in a great spot.
Anthony Rizzo To Record an RBI (+130)
With a great matchup, the New York Yankees have a number of different player props to consider tonight.
The Yanks are sporting a 4.62 implied run total and are taking on Dylan Bundy of the Twins. This puts the Yankees in a great spot, as Bundy is allowing a .368 wOBA, .493 SLG, 4.36 xFIP, 1.53 HR/9, and 13.8% strikeout rate versus left-handed hitters this season. He gets hit hard and doesn't have the ability to shut down a lineup because he isn't a big strikeout pitcher.
Anthony Rizzo normally hits in the middle of the Yankees lineup, which always puts him in a great spot to pick up an RBI. Rizzo comes in with a 136 wRC+, .278 ISO, 52.4% fly-ball rate, and 37.7% hard-contact rate. A great matchup and a powerful offense around him should allow Rizzo to pick up an RBI, so it's reasonable to add Rizzo 2+ RBIs (+440), as well.
Trevor Rogers Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
If you're ready for a sweat, let's look at under 4.5 strikeouts for Trevor Rogers.
Taking an under isn't for the faint of heart, but this is just a spot to side with said under. Rogers comes in with a low 19.2% strikeout rate this season, along with a concerning 10.3% walk rate. In his 10 starts this season, Rogers has been over 4.5 strikeouts only twice. We've failed to see Rogers go deep into the game lately, as he hasn't reached 90 pitches in any of his last three starts.
If Rogers isn't pitching deep into games, his ability to pick up strikeouts -- which he isn't doing at a high rate this season -- is going to be severely limited.
Add in the fact that he's going up against the Washington Nationals, who come in with a 16.8% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the lowest in the league. The Nationals may not be a good team, but they are very disciplined at the plate and don't give away strikeouts.