3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 6/2/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Joey Votto To Hit a Home Run (+385)
The Cincinnati Reds have a strong 5.32 implied run total tonight and plenty of offensive potential.
With a 10.0-run over/under against the Washington Nationals, there's a strong expectation for scoring in this game. This game is in Cincinnati, which is one of the best hitter's parks in the league and a nice boost for everyone involved.
We turn to Joey Votto, who comes in with a .186 ISO, a 39.2% fly-ball rate, and an 85 wRC+. The stats for Votto are modest this season after spending some time on the injured list, but we've seen his xSLG increasing in recent games.
The matchup is a favorable one against Joan Adon, who is allowing a .462 SLG, a .368 wOBA, a 5.56 xFIP, 1.17 HR/9, and a 39.4% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters this season.
We have a struggling pitcher versus a hitter who has some good underlying metrics and appears to be on the upswing -- no pun intended.
Sean Manaea Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Sean Manaea is one of the best pitchers in action tonight and holds a strong matchup.
With a prop sitting at 6.5, I'm going with the over for Manaea against the Milwaukee Brewers. Manaea comes in with a 26.4% strikeout rate this season and a 13.5% swinging-strike rate. He's in the top 15 in the league in both of those categories among qualified pitchers, showing we can trust him with this prop. He's also flashed some serious upside, posting 12 and 8 strikeouts in some of his recent starts.
He's going up against the Brewers, who come in with a 24.0% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the seventh-worst in the league.
With his high-upside potential combined with a favorable matchup, adding on Manaea 8+ Strikeouts (+210) is worth considering.
Marcell Ozuna To Record an RBI (-115)
With a massive 12.0 over/under, the Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies is expected to see plenty of offense.
It's Coors Field, it's a high over/under, and we're looking here for some player props. The Braves are sporting a slate-high 6.43 implied run total taking on Austin Gomber, who is allowing a .456 SLG, a .349 wOBA, a 4.12 xFIP, 1.49 HR/9, and a low 18.2% strikeout rate.
Those are some rough numbers to have against a powerful Braves lineup, and that means plenty of choices for player props.
We turn to Marcell Ozuna and his RBI prop sitting at -115. He has modest numbers overall versus left-handed pitchers this season, which are far below his career numbers.
He's better against right-handed pitchers this season and considering the Braves roll out a mostly right-handed-hitting lineup, it won't be a surprise to see the Rockies use right-handed pitchers out of the bullpen. This would actually play into the favor of Ozuna for his props.
I'll also add Ozuna 2+ RBI (+300) is very appealing.
