3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Tuesday 5/31/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Charlie Morton, P, Braves ($7,700)
Charlie Morton stands out as a value pitcher who could turn in a good outing.
A consistently good pitcher for a long time, Morton has started slowly in 2022. His 4.47 SIERA and 20.3% strikeout rate are miles off his 2021 output (3.53 SIERA and 28.6% strikeout rate). But there are reasons for optimism. He's posted a single-game swinging-strike rate of at least 10.0% in four straight starts, and his average fastball velocity this campaign is nearly the same as his velocity from 2021.
The matchup is there, too, as Morton is on the road to face the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona is 20th in wOBA (.302) with the 2nd-highest strikeout rate (25.3%).
We project Morton for 31.3 FanDuel points. He's our number-four pitcher overall and the second-best point-per-dollar play. On a Coors slate, the salary savings he offers are very handy.
Sam Hilliard, OF, Rockies ($2,600)
Did someone say Coors?
Sam Hilliard is a low-salary way to get exposure to the Colorado Rockies for their home matchup with the Miami Marlins.
Hilliard, a lefty, typically plays only when the Rox see a righty, and that's the case today as they'll do battle with Edward Cabrera. At home versus righties last year, Hilliard put up a 40.7% hard-hit rate, and both of his jacks this season have been with the platoon advantage.
Cabrera has only 26.1 MLB innings to his name, but his numbers don't bode well for his Coors fate. He sports a career walk rate of 15.8% and has allowed 2.05 homers per nine.
Colorado's 5.19 implied total is a number we want a piece of, and Hilliard is a way to get that without breaking the bank.
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds ($2,600)
Our model really likes the Cincinnati Reds tonight. While Cincy's implied total is just 4.02 runs, we project the Reds to plate 5.13 runs on Tuesday.
The Reds are up against Michael Wacha. The righty has a 4.81 SIERA, 17.1% strikeout rate and 10.0% walk rate this season. Things aren't going well. Left-handed hitters are striking out just 15.2% of the time against Wacha, and he's permitted a 47.8% fly-ball rate and 1.69 dingers per nine in the split.
Enter Joey Votto.
The veteran left-handed hitter hasn't been good this year, but he's better against righties. Both of Votto's taters have come in the split, and his strikeout rate against righties is 25.0%, compared to a 38.8% strikeout rate versus southpaws.
We have Votto scoring 12.3 FanDuel points and rate him as the seventh-best point-per-dollar bat.
