3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 5/27/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Rafael Devers To Hit a Home Run (+330)
The Boston Red Sox are sporting a slate-high 5.34 implied run total and are in a great matchup.
When it comes to offense, the Red Sox are pouring in runs right now, and we want to get exposure to their offense in any way we can. Over their last seven games, they've scored six or more runs in six of the seven, including at least 12 runs three times. The Red Sox are red-hot, and that won't be slowing down tonight when they take on Kyle Bradish.
This is Bradish's first year in the MLB, and he has a total of 26.2 innings pitched. That's a small sample size, and his splits versus each type of hitter are obviously smaller, giving us very little to work with. Overall, he's allowing 2.03 HR/9, a 43.8% hard-contact rate, and a 39.7% fly-ball rate. Those are some tough numbers to bring into a date against a streaking offense, in a hitter-friendly park, where there will be wind blowing out.
It's basically a nightmare scenario for Bradish.
I'll turn to Rafael Devers, who comes in with a 183 wRC+, .314 ISO, .425 wOBA, 39.8% fly-ball rate, 38.1% hard-contact rate, and 22.2% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers this year. He's an elite hitter and has a great matchup to put that on display.
Manny Machado To Record an RBI (+145)
Manny Machado is in a good spot to cash in on his RBI prop tonight.
The San Diego Padres have a 4.08 implied run total, and I think that is a bit too low given their matchup against Jose Quintana and the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen. Quintana has some moderately good numbers this season versus right-handed hitters, but they also aren't numbers you should be worried about. He comes in with a 4.14 xFIP, 18.2% strikeout rate, 34.3% fly-ball rate, and .336 SLG. Quintana hasn't been bad this year, but he's also not good.
The Pirates' bullpen is sporting similar numbers, and, frankly, I'm trusting Machado in this spot. He comes in with a 261 wRC+, .551 wOBA, .452 ISO, insanely low 5.9% strikeout rate, 52.5% hard-contact rate, and 42.5% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers. He's been on fire to start the year, and I'll look to add Machado to Record 2+ RBI (+550), as well.
Shane Bieber Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-104)
It looks like I'm going to be a Belieber tonight.
Shane Bieber is on the mound for the Cleveland Guardians, and I'm looking to the over 6.5 strikeouts. Bieber is going up against the Detroit Tigers, who come in with a 24.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the sixth-highest in the league. Bieber has looked solid this year outside of one start -- May 7th against the Toronto Blue Jays, when he went 3.1 innings and had zero strikeouts.
Overall, he's carrying a 24.1% strikeout rate, which is good but can be better. Over the last three seasons, he's posted strikeout rates at 33.1%, 41.1%, and 30.2%. He's been one of the elite strikeout pitchers in the last few year, and the 24.1% strikeout rate he has this year is a bit low for his standards. Considering Bieber has a solid 13.2% swinging-strike rate this year, I'm expecting his 24.1% strikeout rate to increase as the year goes on.
Add all of this together, and I'm taking the over on 6.5 strikeouts -- as well as adding his alternate lines of 8+ Strikeouts (+172) and 9+ Strikeouts (+330).