MLB Betting Guide: Friday 5/27/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money -- whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Boston Moneyline (-200): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Yes, I know the Boston Red Sox are -200 on the moneyline, but that's not a big enough number, per our model. The -200 price implies win odds of 66.7%. Our projections give Boston a 74.8% chance to win, which comes out to a -297 moneyline.
It's pretty easy to see why we like the Red Sox so much today. Their offense is on fire, and they have a fantastic matchup against Baltimore Orioles righty Kyle Bradish. Plus, Boston is giving the ball to Garrett Whitlock, who has been outstanding.
Bradish has been decent in his brief MLB career, but he's giving up a 43.8% hard-hit rate and 39.7% fly-ball rate across his first 26 2/3 frames. He's got a mountain in front of him today versus a Red Sox attack that has flipped the switch of late. Over the past 14 days, Boston boasts a gaudy .396 wOBA with 24 taters -- both of which are league-best clips. They've scored 16 runs twice in their past three games, and before that span, they plated at least six runs in four straight outings. And, as if they needed help, the wind is blowing out at Fenway.
Whitlock has a much softer matchup against the O's, and he can take advantage. His move to the rotation is going swimmingly as he owns a 2.99 SIERA, 29.0% strikeout rate, and 13.7% swinging-strike rate. He's still building up his workload, going over 80 pitches only once this campaign, but that's the lone negative in his profile.
We have Boston winning by a lopsided score of 6.12-3.86. Baseball is baseball, but our model absolutely loves the Red Sox in this spot. We rate taking Boston to win as a three-star bet despite the -200 moneyline.
Toronto Moneyline (-118): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Alek Manoah is pitching for the Jays, and after a stellar rookie year a season ago, the right-hander has been even better so far in 2022. He's pitched to a 3.63 SIERA, 22.3% strikeout rate, 4.7% walk rate, and 12.7% swinging-strike rate. The strikeout rate is lower than it should be. Manoah had a 12.6% swinging-strike rate in 2021, and that led to a 27.7% strikeout rate. He's also permitting just a 20.4% hard-hit rate.
The matchup against the Halos' offense is a rough one, but Manoah should be up to the task. We project LA to score only 3.98 runs today.
Rookie Chase Silseth is throwing for the Angels, and he's got just 10 1/3 MLB innings to his name. The 2021 draft pick has also tossed only 29 1/3 innings above short-season rookie ball, getting fast-tracked to the bigs. Silseth looks the part of a promising young stud, but the Angels are asking a lot of him today against George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and company. Our model forecasts Toronto to push across 5.14 runs.
The -118 moneyline implies win odds of 54.1%, but we think Toronto wins 60.1% of the time. We mark this bet as a two-star wager.