3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/23/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Yordan Alvarez To Hit a Home Run (+290)
The Houston Astros have tons of home run potential in their lineup tonight.
Yordan Alvarez is one of the best power hitters in the league and is always a threat to hit a home run, making him one of the top options tonight. I'll also be looking to his teammate Kyle Tucker (+400) for a home run prop tonight. When it comes to the matchup, the Cleveland Guardians haven't officially announced a starting pitcher, but it's going to be Zach Plesac or Triston McKenzie.
The matchup shouldn't matter for Alvarez because he comes in with a 216 wRC+, .440 ISO, .461 wOBA, 44.3% hard-contact rate, and 41.4% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
Plesac is allowing a 5.66 xFIP, .355 wOBA, 1.96 HR/9, and 46.0% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters this season.
McKenzie has a 4.52 xFIP and 52.9% fly-ball rate but a 0.00 HR/9 to left-handed hitters this season. That's right, he has yet to allow a home run to a lefty.
However, he should be due for some regression because he allowed a 42.7% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters last season, which led to 1.28 HR/9. He's allowing more fly balls this season, but somehow, they have yet to turn into home runs. He can't sustain that high of a fly-ball rate without giving up some home runs to lefty hitters.
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)
Zack Wheeler is an elite pitcher with a great strikeout prop tonight.
We are looking at the over 6.5 strikeouts for Wheeler tonight, who has a great matchup versus the Atlanta Braves. This season, the Braves have a 25.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the second-worst in the entire league. They always have some power in their lineup, but they also have plenty of swings and misses.
Wheeler comes in with a solid 25.9% strikeout rate and 12.3% swinging-strike rate this season, and he has posted at least 7 strikeouts in each of his last four starts. Given his consistency and the favorable matchup, a sprinkle on Wheeler's 8+ strikeouts at +200 is also worth considering.
Freddie Freeman To Record an RBI (+115)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a slate-high 5.22 implied run total and plenty of player props worth attacking.
It's no surprise to see the Dodgers at the top of any list tonight when it comes to hitting options, and we're going to Freddie Freeman to Record an RBI at +115. He's going up against Joan Adon, who is allowing a .370 wOBA, 5.38 xFIP, 1.42 HR/9, 16.7% walk rate, and 38.6% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters.
Freeman is an elite hitter with a 129 wRC+, .350 wOBA, 7.9% strikeout rate, 38.5% fly-ball rate, and 38.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Freeman is hitting out of the two-hole for the Dodgers and will have plenty of chances at the plate to knock in a hitter. He has no RBIs in his last two games but had at least one RBI in the five games prior.
Add on Freeman for 2+ RBIs at +400 for a bit more risk.