MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 5/3/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins
Marlins -1.5 (+125): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The Miami Marlins should win comfortably today versus the Arizona Diamondbacks, and Trevor Rogers is a big reason why.
The Miami left-hander was superb in 2021, pitching to a 3.72 SIERA and 28.5% strikeout rate over 133 innings. While Rogers' numbers are kind of meh so far this year, we're dealing with very small samples, and one terrible start against the Philadelphia Phillies -- seven earned runs in 1 2/3 innings -- is crushing his season-long line. Since that outing, he's permitted just one run over 11 frames.
Humberto Castellanos is going for Arizona, and he hasn't shown much at the MLB level, sporting a 5.02 SIERA and 15.9% strikeout rate in 70 1/3 career innings. He's surrendered a 40.3% fly-ball rate for his career, and Miami's offense is swinging it well this campaign, ranking 11th in wOBA (.307) and 8th in wRC+ (110).
Our projections point to a 4.88-3.42 win for Miami. We have the runline -- where the Marlins are at -1.5 -- as basically a 50/50 tossup, projecting Miami to cover 50.8% of the time. With the Marlins listed at a +125 runline price, there's solid value in wagering on Miami to cover, which we rate as a two-star bet.
Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Red Sox Moneyline (+110): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Red Sox +1.5 (-152): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 8.5 (-112): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model sees this game playing out a lot differently than oddsmakers do, and there are several spots we identify as bets to zero in on.
The pitching matchup pits Noah Syndergaard versus Michael Wacha.
At first glance, that might seem like a big edge to the Los Angeles Angels, but Wacha has been pretty good. Since the start of 2020, Wacha owns a 4.02 SIERA, 22.7% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate, and 11.1% swinging-strike rate.
Syndergaard has thrown only 19 innings since the start of 2020, so it's hard to know what kind of pitcher he is now. He hasn't topped 90 pitches in any of his three 2022 starts, and Thor's average fastball velocity of 95.2 MPH -- while still good -- is well below his 97.9 MPH from 2019. He might not be the guy he was with the New York Mets
In terms of offense and bullpen, the Boston Red Sox have a slight edge in each area. Neither bullpen has been stellar so far this year, but Boston's 3.40 'pen SIERA is a tick better than the Los Angeles Angels' 3.60 mark. Both offenses are stout, but FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections slot Boston's offense sixth and the Angels' eighth.
We really like the Red Sox in this one. Listed as slight 'dogs, the Red Sox boast win odds of 65.4%, per our model, and we have them winning by a score of 5.76-4.53. We think they cover as 1.5-run underdogs 75.9% of the time. Taking them on the runline is a four-star bet, and so is betting on Boston on the moneyline.
There's also a fairly strong lean on the over. Our projections see 10.29 runs coming across and expect the over to win out at a rate of 64.0%.