3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Stacks for Tuesday 5/3/22
Stacks are an integral part of daily fantasy baseball. They can push a team to the top of a GPP by driving upside. However, they're also viable in cash games, namely smaller (two-person or three-person) stacks that mitigate the volatility of a full four-person stack.
This article is your home throughout the 2022 Major League Baseball season for the day's top stacks. The primary goal is to identify the highest-scoring upside stack. Still, game theory will play a role in contrarian stacks making the cut as GPP options. Nevertheless, chalky stacks will make appearances in this space, too.
Beyond my analysis in this space, I strongly suggest numberFire premium members using our DFS Sharpstack tool and hitting heat map tool. The DFS Sharpstack helps plug stacks into optimized lineups, allowing you to change parameters and lock or exclude players and teams. Meanwhile, the heat map offers a one-stop-shop for the opposing starting pitcher, implied total, park factor, and other notable goodies.
Now, let's look at the top stacks on today's main slate that starts on FanDuel at 2:20 pm ET.
Chicago White Sox
All nine lineup spots for the Chicago White Sox may be occupied by a righty or switch-hitter tonight. That's bad news for Drew Smyly. The 32-year-old lefty has been no great shakes against right-handed hitters.
According to FanGraphs, he's allowed a .334 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) to 2,667 right-handed batters faced in his career. Moreover, he's yielded a .338 wOBA to righties since 2021. I'm also drawn to Smyly's problem keeping the ball in the yard. Since last year, he's allowed 1.91 homers per nine innings.
Thankfully, Chicago has a bunch of hitters with jaw-dropping power numbers against southpaws. Since 2019, six players on their active roster have had at least a .238 Isolated Power (ISO) against lefties, including Tim Anderson ($3,600), Luis Robert ($3,200), Jose Abreu ($3,100), Andrew Vaughn ($2,800), A.J. Pollock ($2,600), and Yasmani Grandal ($2,400). As you can see, there are sources of power in this stack at all salary levels, making them perfect to stack around another offense, a value pitcher, or the top hurlers on tonight's slate. As a result, this is a high-upside stack with maximum flexibility.
The Houston Astros have a pitch-to-contact starter on tap tonight. Since returning from the Korean Baseball Organization for the 2021 season, Chris Flexen has struck out only 16.7 percent of hitters. Fortunately, he's made the approach work, recording a 3.58 ERA.
However, Flexen's 4.52 Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) and 4.67 Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) aren't as glowing as his 3.58 ERA. Thus, I expect his ERA estimators to win out in the long run. Moreover, the Astros are built to rip low-strikeout hurlers in Flexen's mold.
Houston's lineup tonight should include four hitters with a Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) above 130 against righties since 2019. Specifically, Alex Bregman ($3,900) has had a 133 wRC+, Kyle Tucker ($3,500) has had a 147 wRC+, Michael Brantley ($2,800) has had a 150 wRC+, and Yordan Alvarez ($4,200) has led the quartet with a 158 wRC+. Jose Altuve ($3,000) hasn't been a slouch, either, amassing a 121 wRC+. The Astros are stackable from top to bottom, but I prefer to pick from the five hitters I've highlighted.
The Minnesota Twins have probably burned me more than they've made me money this year. Further, a matchup with Bruce Zimmermann might be challenging tonight. The 27-year-old lefty's 0.93 ERA in four starts has overstated his excellence, but his 3.61 Expected ERA (xERA) and 3.18 SIERA have been sharp. Regardless, I do not forget 64 and 1/3 innings of poor pitching in 2021 after just 19 and 1/3 innings of stellar work this year.
Combining last year's struggles with this season's excellence yields a 4.09 ERA and 4,28 SIERA in 83 and 2/3 innings. Zimmermann has also coughed up an eye-catching 1.61 homers per nine innings. Finally, right-handed batters have touched him up for a .336 wOBA during that stretch.
As a result, I'm intrigued by Byron Buxton ($3,900), Carlos Correa ($3,200), Jorge Polanco ($2,900), Gary Sanchez ($2,600), and Jose Miranda ($2,000). Miranda might be an unfamiliar name to many of you. However, after raking in the upper minors, the young infielder made his big-league debut last night.
In 686 plate appearances in Double-A and Triple-A combined since 2021, he has hit 32 homers with a .386 OBP, .222 ISO, and 149 wRC+. In addition, Miranda destroyed lefties last year. The young right-handed hitters had a .713 slugging and 1.164 OPS in 151 plate appearances against southpaws in 2021, per Baseball-Reference. Buxton and Miranda are my two favorite hitters in this stack.
Joshua Shepardson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Joshua Shepardson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username bchad50. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.