MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 4/14/22

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Washington Moneyline (+114): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

Our model is a fan of the underdog Washington Nationals today in their road game at the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Pirates are going with JT Brubaker on the mound while Washington is turning to Joan Adon.

Adon has just two starts and 9 2/3 MLB innings to his name, but he had an excellent 2021 campaign that took him through four levels. The righty opened the year in High-A before flying through the Nats' system and making his MLB debut.

Washington obviously thinks highly of Adon, and this is a friendly matchup for him versus a Pittsburgh offense that was 28th in wOBA last year (.294) and projects to be a bad lineup once again (28th by FanGraphs' projections).

Brubaker's numbers are somewhat intriguing. He pitched to a 4.04 SIERA across 124 1/3 frames in 2021 on the back of a 24.0% strikeout rate and 12.0% swinging-strike rate. His downfall has been taters. Brubaker permitted 2.03 dingers per nine last season and allowed one in three innings in his 2022 debut. The gopher ball could get him today as he does battle with Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz and Josh Bell.

We project the underdog Nats to win by a score of 4.77-4.33. We give Washington win odds of 52.4% and rate taking them on the moneyline as a two-star wager.

Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies

Colorado Moneyline (-120): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

We've got a Coors Field game tonight, and we should see plenty of offensive fireworks, per usual, as the matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies boasts an 11.0-run total.

Our projections see betting value on the Rockies.

Lefty Justin Steele is taking the ball for the Cubs, and he should be in for a rough go of it against a Colorado lineup that will boast right-handed bats such as C.J. Cron, Kris Bryant, Brendan Rodgers and Connor Joe. Steele put up a 10.2% walk rate across 57 innings last campaign and gave up 1.89 homers per nine -- neither of which bode well for his chances at Coors.

Kyle Freeland is nothing special, but he was OK at Coors last season, recording a 4.14 xFIP at home due in large part to limiting hitters to a 31.9% fly-ball rate in the split. The biggest thing Freeland has going for him today is that the Cubs' lineup is meh. Despite a decent start to the year, the Cubs project as the 12th-worst offense the rest of the way, per FanGraphs.

While the Rockies are -120 moneyline favorites, our numbers think they should be bigger favorites. The -120 moneyline implies win odds of 54.5%. We project Colorado to win this game 59.4% of the time. Taking the Rox on the moneyline is a two-star play.