MLB Betting Guide: Friday 10/8/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Braves Moneyline (+132): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Runs should be at a premium, and that's reflected in the 7.0-run total. Where our model sees a sliver of value is on the underdog Braves.
Morton, in his age-37 campaign, turned in another excellent season, finishing with a 3.53 SIERA and 28.6% strikeout rate. He ended the year in fine form, tossing 9 2/3 shutout innings over his last two appearances while fanning 13 in that span. He can thrive in this matchup as Milwaukee's offense was 19th in wOBA (.310) with the 8th-highest strikeout rate (24.0%).
Now comes the part where I try to poke holes in Burnes' resume. The guy was amazing this year -- there's no doubt about that. He pitched to a 2.61 SIERA and 35.6% strikeout rate. He can plow through any lineup when he's on.
But Burnes definitely has the tougher matchup of the two hurlers, as Atlanta's offense was ninth in wOBA (.323), and the Braves tagged Burnes for five earned runs in four frames back on July 30th in what was arguably Burnes' worst start of the season.
While our projections have Milwaukee winning this game 54.8% of the time, we give the Braves a slightly better chance than oddsmakers do. We have Atlanta's win odds at 45.2%, while their +132 moneyline price implies odds of 43.1%. It's not much, but it's one of the rare spots where our numbers differentiate from the posted lines across today's four games.
Giants Moneyline (+106): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
What a series this should be. After battling it out all year for the NL West title, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants kick off their NLDS series this evening. This is the game with the most betting value today, according to our algorithm.
After winning an MLB-best 107 games and posting a +210 run differential, the Giants are home 'dogs in Game 1 to a team that had to burn its best pitcher in the Wild Card game. The thing is, it makes sense, as the Dodgers have Walker Buehler manning the mound tonight, and LA won 106 games with baseball's best run differential (+269).
Again, this should be a heck of a series, and our model backs the Giants to win the opener.
While Buehler is an outstanding pitcher, Logan Webb owns some amazing numbers, as well. Webb broke out this season to the tune of a 3.13 SIERA and 26.5% strikeout rate. He was a legit ace, and he was downright nasty at home, posting a .248 wOBA and 30.6% strikeout rate in the split. He's also shown the ability to tame the Dodgers' high-powered lineup, holding them to four earned runs in 16 innings while punching out 17 across three starts in 2021.
Buehler registered a 3.73 SIERA and 26.0% strikeout rate, but he wasn't at his best down the stretch, with his 22.0% strikeout rate in September being his lowest single-month mark by 3.2 percentage points. Buehler made a whopping six starts against the Giants this year, and while he was excellent in the first five of those outings, San Fran hammered him for six earned runs in three innings in the most recent one (September 5th).
Both of these offenses ranked in the top seven in wOBA for the season, but it's actually the Giants' offense that ranked better in wOBA (. 329 to .327) and hit more jacks (241 to 237) -- although they're about even in most numbers.
We like the Giants to win this one. We give San Fran a 56.3% chance to take Game 1, and they are +106 on the moneyline, implying odds of 48.5%. It's the lone two-star bet of the night, according to our model.