MLB Betting Guide: Monday 9/20/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-118): 1 Star out of 5
The Atlanta Braves are clinging to the NL East, as they currently own a two game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies, On the other hand, the Arizona Diamondbacks are last place in the NL West and have the most losses in the National League with 101.
The Braves have a major advantage offensively, averaging 4.82 runs per game (8th in MLB), compared to the Diamondbacks, who are averaging 4.20 runs per game (25th in MLB).
Atlanta also has the starting pitching advantage, as they start Huascar Ynoa, who boasts an 4.08 xERA and 3.55 FIP in 77.1 innings pitched this season. He faces Humberto Mejia, who has only thrown 21 MLB innings and has a career 5.14 ERA and 5.70 FIP.
Our model likes the Braves to win this game by a large margin, and we give a 56.49% chance to cover the runline of 1.5.
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+118): 1 Star out of 5
The Toronto Blue Jays are having an amazing month of September, going 15-3 while outscoring their opponents 134-73. The Blue Jays have been one of the best offenses in baseball all season long, averaging 5.27 runs per game, which is third in the league and only marginally behind the Tampa Bay Rays (5.31 runs per game).
But the Blue Jays' real advantage tonight comes from the starting pitching matchup, as they have Cy Young candidate Robbie Ray facing Shane Baz, who will be making his MLB debut for Tampa Bay. Ray leads the AL in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP, ERA+, and hits per 9 innings this season.
Our model gives the Blue Jays a 48.21% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, making this a one-star betting opportunity given the plus odds.
Over 8.0 Runs (-120): 2 Stars out of 5
Baltimore's Means has a 3.41 ERA but only a 4.11 xERA, and his FIP is even worse at 4.59.
For the Phillies, Suarez has a sparkling ERA of 1.50 but a FIP of 2.98 and an xERA of 2.71. Both Suarez and Means are having strong seasons, but they have not been quite as dominant as their ERAs would suggest.
This game also features two of the worst bullpens in MLB, as Baltimore has a 5.74 bullpen ERA (last in MLB) and Philadelphia has a 4.71 bullpen ERA (25th). Once the starters are removed, the runs will likely pour in from both sides.
Our model gives a 58.71% chance of the over hitting, making this a two-star betting opportunity for Monday night.