3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 9/15/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Franmil Reyes To Hit a Home Run (+185)
The odds on Franmil Reyes' home run prop aren't super high tonight, but man, he is in a great spot.
With the odds being this low, it should be a good indication that he has a very favorable matchup to hit one over the fence tonight. This is due to the fact he is up against Griffin Jax, who -- for lack of a better term -- is a bad pitcher. There's really no way around it, there's no other way to put it -- I'm sorry Twins' fans, he is bad.
Jax comes in allowing a .290 ISO, 5.58 xFIP, 2.50 HR/9, 53.4% fly-ball rate, and 37.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season. Woof. Those are some truly terrible numbers and ones we actively want to seek out for home run props.
We turn to Reyes, who has a 132 wRC+, .306 ISO, 36.5% fly-ball rate, 45.9% hard-contact rate, and massive 36.2% HR/FB rate versus righties this season. Reyes has the ability to send a ball to the moon tonight given the matchup, and his homerun prop is looking great tonight.
Bryce Harper To Hit a Home Run (+250)
Are we going to see another Bryce Harper home run tonight?
Harper is quietly having a very strong season, and the home runs seem to be an every other night occurrence for him, at least in the month of September where he has six home runs in 12 games played. He is locked in right now and can add another to his total with his matchup versus Alec Mills.
This season, Mills is allowing 1.49 HR/9 with a 5.11 xFIP, 16.4% strikeout rate, and 32.9% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. He's not giving up an insane number of fly balls, but he is still getting beat by the long ball, and there's no reason you should be shying away from this matchup.
We can look to Harper, who comes in with a 193 wRC+, .382 ISO, 38.7% fly-ball rate, 48.3% hard-contact rate, and 32.6% HR/FB rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. A staggering 29 of Harper's 32 home runs have come off of right-handed pitchers, so this is the matchup to attack.
Jose Urquidy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)
The strikeout prop for Jose Urquidy is worth looking at tonight.
Urquidy returned from the injured list last week, and he looked okay. He only pitched three innings and had two walks, two strikeouts, and two earned runs. Overall, really average stuff in his first game back, throwing 42 of 70 pitches for strikes.
If you can't tell by now, I'm largely unimpressed with his first game back. I think that Urquidy is a solid pitcher overall, but coming off of the injured list, it's a different story.
This is why the under on 4.5 strikeouts is the spot you want to look. His 21.4% strikeout rate on the season is below the league average, which isn't encouraging, and we also have to question how deep he'll be going into the game.
To be clear, I'm not concerned about his matchup versus the Texas Rangers. But I'm worried Urquidy won't make it deep enough into the game to hit the over on 4.5 strikeouts.