FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 9/12/21
The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.
While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.
In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our projections and batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.
If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. We'll be focusing exclusively on the main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
Aaron Nola ($8,800 on FanDuel) and Lance McCullers ($9,000) are in their own tier for me, and neither is salaried that high.
Nola is at home versus the Colorado Rockies. In their travels this year, the Rox have the worst road wOBA (.287) with the fifth-highest strikeout rate (25.2%). Colorado carries a 3.60 implied total, the second-lowest of the slate. As for Nola, he's been off lately, allowing multiple runs in each of his last five starts and not taking advantage of some good matchups in that span. His season-long numbers -- including a 3.32 SIERA and 29.4% strikeout rate -- are superb, though. We peg him for a slate-leading 38.8 FanDuel points.
McCullers gets a Los Angeles Angels offense that is 28th in wOBA over the last 30 days (.286) with the 4th-highest strikeout rate (25.7%) in that time. Using Luis Garcia against these Halos didn't work last night, but that shouldn't push us off McCullers. The Houston Astros' righty sports a 27.3% strikeout rate for the year along with a 3.24 xFIP in the second half. LA's 3.63 implied total is the third-lowest. Our algorithm has McCullers scoring 35.5 FanDuel points and ranks him second.
The lowest implied total (3.23) goes to the Miami Marlins, who are on the road against Max Fried ($9,300). While I have Fried a tick below McCullers and Nola, he's definitely a viable pick. Across the last 30 days, Miami has the second-highest strikeout rate (26.6%) with the lowest wOBA (.282). It's about as good as a matchup can get. Fried's 24.1% strikeout rate is why I have him outside the elite tier, but he's fully capable of torching Miami. We forecast Fried for 32.6 FanDuel points.
Logan Webb ($9,700) profiles as someone who may slip through the cracks a bit, making him perfect for tournaments. The matchup is 100% there as he's going up against a Chicago Cubs offense that owns the highest strikeout rate (28.1%) over the last 30 days. With a 3.16 SIERA and 26.6% strikeout rate, Webb can mow through the Cubbies if he's on, and he boasts a 2.65 xFIP in the second half. When the Cubs' implied total is posted, it'll be a fairly low clip -- even with the wind blowing out at Wrigley.
Stacks to Target
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays carry a slate-best 6.19 implied total into a Camden-Yards date with lefty Zac Lowther. Everything points to the Jays having a huge day. Lowther didn't show much in the minors this season (22.9% strikeout rate in Triple-A), and he's giving up 1.88 dingers per nine in his very brief MLB tenure.
As is usually the case, the lone issue with stacking Toronto is how high they are in salary. Marcus Semien ($4,500), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,500), Teoscar Hernandez ($4,200), Bo Bichette ($4,000), George Springer ($3,900) and Lourdes Gurriel ($3,800) are all at least $3,800. Springer, Semien and Vlad are three of the slate's top-four sticks, per our numbers. Given his modest salary compared to the rest of the Jays' big boppers, Springer may wind up as the slate's most popular stick.
Randal Grichuk ($2,600) and Alejandro Kirk ($2,700) will have the platoon advantage and are sources of cap relief.
Houston Astros
The Astros flopped last night as a go-to stack. Hopefully that keeps the masses away today (it won't) because Houston is getting a 5.37 implied total versus Jaime Barria. Lefties have tagged Barria for 1.72 jacks per nine while righties have a 40.1% hard-hit rate off him. The splits are smaller samples, but we have total freedom with a Houston stack. And they're much easier to fit in alongside a high-salary arm than Toronto is.
Our model slots Carlos Correa ($3,500) and Yordan Alvarez ($3,400) as the Astros' top options. Alvarez has a .371 wOBA and 43.0% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage. He's easy to love at his salary, and I'll have a ton of him. Kyle Tucker ($3,200) has a .386 wOBA and 44.3% fly-ball rate against righties. He's another guy I'll be loading up on.
As usual, Jose Altuve ($4,300) and Alex Bregman ($4,000) are nice plays if you have the coin.
Minnesota Twins
Kris Bubic is who the Minnesota Twins will face off with this afternoon, and the Twins hold a stackable 4.97 implied total. Bubic is punching out just 20.5% of righties and is permitting a .356 wOBA in the split. That's where I'll focus.
Miguel Sano ($3,100), Jorge Polanco ($4,100), Josh Donaldson ($3,100) and Byron Buxton ($3,700) are a fun four-man stack of righties that isn't too difficult to find the salary for.
Sano is our algorithm's fifth-ranked bat, and he's got a 47.2% hard-hit rate in the split. Donaldson has a long track record of success versus southpaws while Buxton has been a beast this season when healthy, posting a .385 wOBA against lefties. Polanco is on fire in the second half, mashing his way to a .423 wOBA and 17 taters since the break.
