3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 8/16/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
C.J. Cron To Hit a Home Run (+330)
If there is a game at Coors Field, the chances we see some home runs are always going to be high.
The Colorado Rockies are hosting the San Diego Padres, and this series should see the ball flying each and every game.
Tonight, we look to C.J. Cron, who comes in with plenty of power and should be at the top of the home run list tonight. He has a .283 ISO, 45.2% fly-ball rate, 35.6% hard-contact rate, and 21.2% HR/FB rate. Those are his numbers overall on the season, and they are all even higher if we would just look at his splits versus left-handed pitchers while at home this season. So yeah, he is in a great spot to cash in on his home run prop tonight.
Ryan Weathers comes in allowing 2.05 HR/9 to right-handed hitters with a 37.9% fly-ball rate, 42.9% hard-contact rate, and 20.7% HR/FB rate. Of the 14 home runs that Weathers has allowed this season, 12 of them have come from right-handed hitters, clearly showing he has a weakness in this split.
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-106)
Kevin Gausman is one of the best pitchers on tonight's slate, and his strikeout prop is worth looking at.
Gausman comes in with a very strong 29.8% strikeout rate this season, which is the second-best on tonight's slate. We have seen him seen him push past double-digit strikeouts multiple times this season, and this should be a lever he can easily reach.
Why easily for him? He's going up against the New York Mets, who come in with a 24.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers with their current roster, which is the eighth-worst in the league. We have seen the Mets' offense struggle in recent weeks, and given Gausman's potential ceiling, he is a solid choice for a strikeout prop tonight.
Salvador Perez To Hit a Home Run (+240)
Salvador Perez is having a career year at the plate, and there is no reason to fade him in this matchup.
With 30 home runs this season, Perez has set a new career-high, and there's no indication he will be slowing down. He can add to that total tonight with his matchup versus Jake Odorizzi. I've looked to target Odorizzi multiple times this season because he is allowing a 42.5% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters with a 16.7% HR/FB rate. He is giving up too many fly balls, and there is some clear upside for some home runs tonight.
Perez comes in with a .194 ISO, 36.0% fly-ball rate, and 42.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. His power is very even this season with exactly 15 of his 30 home runs coming off of right-handed pitchers, so the matchup is one you want to attack.