3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Wednesday 7/28/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's full 10-game main slate.
Andrew Heaney, SP, Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel Salary: $7,600
There are few things as delicious as Rocky Road, and by that, I mean a matchup with the Colorado Rockies when they're on the road.
This season, Colorado's 64 wRC+ away from Coors Field is the worst in the league by a wide, wide margin. In fact, the gap between them and the 29th-ranked team -- the Chicago Cubs is as large as the gap between the Cubs and the 16th-ranked squad, the Atlanta Braves, per FanGraphs. For good measure, the Rockies are also striking out at a 25.4% clip on the road, which is good for sixth-worst in the majors.
Tonight, Los Angeles Angels' Andrew Heaney is the one who gets to taste some of this delicious ice cream. The southpaw's 5.32 ERA might look bleak, but a look under the hood paints an entirely different picture. So far this season, Heaney has amassed a 3.83 xFIP, a 3.71 SIERA, and a 27.9% punch-out rate. Those are all very respectable numbers, and they should play well in a matchup like this.
Heaney's no stranger to high-end fantasy production. Over his last 10 starts, the left-hander has racked up at least 46 FanDuel points four times.
Lewin Diaz, 1B, Miami Marlins
FanDuel Salary: $2,000
It's rare to get a player with an excellent chance of going yard at the minimum salary, but we might have exactly that in Lewin Diaz tonight.
In 22 trips to the plate this season, Diaz has left the park three times, including a solo shot last night in his first big league game in over a month. The 24-year-old smacked 14 homers in 181 at-bats in Triple-A this season, so this pop isn't coming out of nowhere.
However, it's the matchup that makes Diaz truly enticing. Tonight, he and the Miami Marlins will square off against Jorge Lopez. Since 2019, Lopez has amassed a 6.71 ERA and 5.78 FIP versus opposite-handed hitters. In that split, those hitters have tagged him for a .307 average, .927 OPS, .387 wOBA, and 2.1 homers per nine frames. That'll play.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B/OF, Chicago White Sox
FanDuel Salary: $2,900
Speaking of hitters with excellent platoon advantages, allow me to introduce you to Andrew Vaughn.
This season, the rookie has absolutely raked against southpaws, garnering a .305 average, 1.010 OPS, .305 ISO, .426 wOBA, and 176 wRC+ in 95 plate appearances against them. Yum.
Vaughn should be able to continue that success against Kansas City Royals lefty Kris Bubic. In 2021, right-handed bats have totaled a .826 OPS, .357 wOBA, and 1.78 HR/9 versus the 23-year-old.
Per numberFire's Matchup Heat Map, the Chicago White Sox have the slate's highest implied total at 5.59, and Vaughn's an excellent way of gaining exposure to those runs.
