3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/13/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Rich Hill Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Hill is 41 years old and has been really solid this season with a 3.84 SIERA and 25.0% strikeout rate.
However, stamina is an issue. The lefty is averaging fewer than five innings per start but manages to thrive at home, where has pitched pretty well against two of the better teams in the American League (Oakland Athletics and Yankees). Against New York, he struck out seven batters in six innings of work back on April 9th. That was on 83 pitches, and Hill has gone over that number only twice this season (with a max of 93).
We know how good the Yanks' offense can be, but they do carry a 23.8% strikeout rate, which is slightly above the league average.
I like Hill to get six-plus punchouts today.
Luke Voit to Hit A Home Run (+310)
The Yankees' infielder has played just two games this season, missing a good chunk of time due to injury. He hasn't gotten a hit yet in eight plate appearances, but he does have a 50.0% hard-hit rate.
Voit is coming off the shortened season in which he led the American League in round-trippers with 22 in just 234 plate appearances, and he'll have the platoon advantage against Hill. In 2020, Voit put up a .373 wOBA and 50.0% fly-ball rate against southpaws
Voit has a solid projection of 0.23 home runs, according to our model, and I like the odds at +310.
Merrill Kelly Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)
Merrill Kelly's strikeouts-per-nine rate has fallen to 7.04 on the season, and he's striking out only 17.6% of hitters. That 17.6% strikeout rate is the fifth-worst clip among qualified starting pitchers.
While he is averaging 5.5 innings per start this year and does have six strikeouts in each of his last two outings, the Arizona Diamondbacks' righty owns a lowly 7.6% swinging-strike rate, so there isn't much reason to believe in his ability to generate a lot of swings and misses today versus the Miami Marlins, even though Miami sports the eighth-worst strikeout rate (26.4%).
Our model projects Kelly to go 5.8 innings and get 5.4 strikeouts. The under looks like the play.