MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 5/13/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 7.5 (-115): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Our model really likes the over in this game.
We get a pitching matchup of Anthony DeSclafani against Wil Crowe. While DeSclafani has been good so far in 2021 (3.70 SIERA), Crowe has not, and our projections have the San Francisco Giants' offense being the main drivers toward getting us to the over.
In 24 career MLB innings -- 15 2/3 of which have come this season -- Crowe owns a 5.87 SIERA, 17.7% strikeout rate and 15.0% walk rate. He had just a 16.4% strikeout rate in 54 Triple-A frames in 2019. Crowe is up against a Giants offense that has been surprisingly solid this season, sitting 10th in wOBA (.314).
We have San Fran plating 5.55 runs, which by itself puts us within roughly two runs of this total. Add on the 4.22 runs we project for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and we forecast a total of 9.77 runs -- well over the 7.5-run line. We have the over hitting 68.3% of the time and rate this as the best wager of the evening.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Moneyline (+118): 2-Star Rating out of 5
This American League East matchup pits Jameson Taillon against Rich Hill.
The Tampa Bay Rays' lefty definitely has a difficult matchup against a New York Yankees lineup that will be loaded with quality right-handed bats. But Hill has been really good so far in 2021, spinning a 3.84 SIERA and 25.0% strikeout rate. Hill hasn't thrown more than six innings in any start, but that only means we should see a good amount of a Tampa Bay bullpen that has a dope 3.25 SIERA in May.
Given that Taillon entered the season with just 37.1 innings under his belt since the start of 2019, he's been especially excellent. He's got a 3.25 SIERA and 28.8% strikeout rate in 28 2/3 frames, and he'll see a Rays offense that has just the 24th-best wOBA (.293). But the one bugaboo for Taillon this year has been the long ball as he's permitted seven of them (2.20 per nine).
Oddsmakers have the Yankees as slight -138 moneyline favorites, but our model projects the Rays to win 54.1% of the time. We rate taking Tampa Bay at +118 on the moneyline as a two-star bet.
