5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Friday 5/7/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Blake Snell, SP, San Diego Padres ($9,000)
And yet, this is a pretty low salary for one of the top overall pitching talents on the board. Snell's 31.6% strikeout rate is the third-best among tonight's starters, and unlike the two ahead of him, Carlos Rodon and Trevor Rogers, Snell's been consistently racking up punchouts for a while now.
Could we see yet another game where Snell falls short of six innings and fails to reach even 40 FanDuel points? Absolutely. But he does have a reasonable season-high of 95 pitches, and we've seen him pop off for huge performances plenty of times before, making him worth taking a chance on in tournaments.
Kyle Garlick, OF, Minnesota Twins ($2,000)
There's simply way too much value in the Minnesota Twins' lineup for such a cushy matchup. Not only are they up against southpaw Tarik Skubal, who's allowed an absurd 3.73 home runs per nine innings to righties dating back to last season, but this Detroit Tigers bullpen has been pummeled for a league-worst 6.69 ERA, and that seems largely justified given they also come in with the fifth-worst xFIP.
Kyle Garlick may not have the credentials of others in the lineup, but he's at minimum salary and has typically found himself batting fourth or fifth. While he doesn't have a home run yet this season, public projection systems project him for between a .165-.180 ISO, per FanGraphs, which is more than enough pop to like him in this spot.
Clint Frazier, OF, New York Yankees ($2,200)
Nothing has gone right for Corbin through five starts, with a poor 5.57 SIERA, 16.5% strikeout rate, and 12.8% walk rate. He's already given up seven home runs, which is just three shy of his total allowed over 11 starts in 2020.
None of this bodes well against a Yankees lineup filled with right-handed power. Clint Frazier ($2,200) has shown nice pop over his young career (.211 ISO), and his double-digit barrel rate suggests more to come this season despite a sluggish start.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B/OF, Chicago White Sox ($2,100)
Admittedly, Andrew Vaughn doesn't exactly have eye-popping numbers in his first big league campaign, but now that injuries have opened the door for more regular playing time, perhaps he can get going. The top prospect is expected to be a mainstay for the Chicago White Sox in the coming years, and as we've seen from other highly regarded prospects lately, sometimes these guys take advantage of early opportunities and run with it.
In any case, this matchup stands out against Brad Keller, who has produced a mere 13.6% strikeout rate so far this season and is walking far too many batters (10.2% walk rate). Vaughn gives you an easy value as a part of any Chicago stacks.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals ($3,000)
Lefty Austin Gomber has the highest walk rate among tonight's hurlers (15.6%), and that's likely to get him in trouble against a St. Louis Cardinals team that figures to be made up of entirely right-handed bats. While Gomber has actually gotten more strikeouts versus righties (24.1%), it's come at the expense of a downright silly 17.2% walk rate, and all three of his home runs allowed have come versus righty bats.
While platoon splits are often overstated, Paul Goldschmidt's number versus lefties have been elite across his entire career, with a .423 wOBA and .267 ISO.