MLB Betting Guide: Friday 9/11/20

According to numberFire's model, which MLB bets have the most value on Friday night?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

Over 8.0 (-105): 4-Star Rating out of 5

We have a rare case where numberFire's model sees a bet as a four-star wager, as it sees tonight's over/under between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox being a tad too low.

With Lucas Giolito taking the mound for Chicago, we probably can't expect much help from the Detroit side, but Chicago's bats are in a good spot to put up some crooked numbers.

Casey Mize is a top prospect for the Tigers, but things haven't exactly gone well for him over his first four big league starts. He enters the evening with a ghastly 6.75 ERA, and while his 4.60 SIERA is a couple runs better, that's hardly an uplifting mark, either. There aren't many positives to be found on his Statcast page, as well, with a sixth percentile barrel rate being particularly worrisome.

Also working in Chicago's favor is a lackluster Detroit bullpen. Among active rosters, Detroit's relievers rank 25th in FIP (5.02) and 22nd in xFIP (4.88).

The White Sox may need a couple runs from the Tigers to hit the over, but this is one of the lowest over/unders of tonight's slate. numberFire's algorithm projects the likelihood of under 8.0 runs at a mere 30.93% clip, making the over a strong value.

One thing to note is that the wind is blowing in, which likely explains the lower-than-expected game total. This is something numberFire's model doesn't factor in, so keep an eye on how things are looking closer to first pitch before committing.

Los Angeles Angels at Colorado Rockies

Angels +1.5 (-154): 3-Star Rating out of 5

The Colorado Rockies may be the favorite against the visiting Los Angeles Angels at Coors Field tonight, but there's value in taking the underdog.

Colorado has German Marquez on the mound tonight, and while he's the most talented pitcher in their rotation, he's also in the midst of a pedestrian campaign.

Over nine starts, Marquez owns a 4.36 SIERA, 22.2% strikeout rate, and 7.7% walk rate, which are pretty much league-average marks across the board. His last two starts at Coors haven't gone well against the Padres and Astros, allowing a combined 15 runs over 11 innings.

Beyond Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, the Angels may not have the overall depth of those teams, but their active roster is still rocking a 118 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, which is actually far better than Houston this season (98).

Angels starter Griffin Canning is having a mediocre campaign (4.94 SIERA), but he did have an excellent outing against Seattle a couple starts ago (one earned run over eight innings) and showed promise in 2019, so he isn't necessarily a lost cause against the Rockies.

numberFire's model projects a 69.49% chance of success for the Angels runline, giving it a three-star rating.