MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/13/20 on FanDuel
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FanDuel's MLB Sims Sports, a new free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- things like player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Here's the breakdown for today's main slate, which starts at 8:06 p.m. EST.
I can talk myself into several of the top arms on this slate. Gerrit Cole ($11,800) is always in play, even in a tough spot at the Boston Red Sox. Zac Gallen ($9,700) has a nice matchup at the San Diego Padres, and Hyun-jin Ryu ($9,100) gets a soft date at the Detroit Tigers.
But Blake Snell ($11,000) is the guy I'll be on as he's at home versus the Baltimore Orioles, a team that was 25th in wOBA (.308) in 2019. Snell's strikeout rate was at a career-high 33.3% last season, and his 17.7% swinging-strike rate was another career-best clip. With Cole in a difficult matchup, Snell can match him in terms of floor/ceiling combination.
Sonny Gray ($9,700) and Lucas Giolito ($8,300) deserve a mention, but they have rough matchups against the Milwaukee Brewers and Houston Astros, respectively, both of which are on the road. If I'm not using Snell, I'll likely just pay up for Cole despite the matchup.
In the value range, it's bleak -- not ideal on a Coors slate. Patrick Sandoval ($6,100) is a guy I can stomach. The lefty is facing the Seattle Mariners, owners of a 25.5% strikeout rate last year, and Sandoval flashed a 24.9% strikeout rate and 13.5% swinging-strike rate across 39 1/3 MLB frames in 2019, though it came with an 11.2% walk rate. If you use him, you better hit on your Coors stack(s).
Mitch Keller and Jeff Hoffman are starting in the Coors game, so both the Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates are stackable. I won't spend too much time here. While all the studs are in play, you can get affordable access to this game via Colin Moran ($3,300), Adam Frazier ($3,300), Daniel Murphy ($3,500), Ian Desmond ($3,400) and Tony Wolters ($2,500).
The Tampa Bay Rays are my favorite non-Coors stack. They'll see Kohl Stewart, who has a 12.7% strikeout rate over 62 career MLB innings. Yes, please. Outside of Brandon Lowe ($3,800) and Austin Meadows ($3,600), the Rays are priced modestly. Heck, Ji-Man Choi ($3,000) is the only other dude priced above $2,600. Yandy Diaz ($2,600) is a smashing point-per-dollar play, and the same can be said for Hunter Renfroe ($2,500).
Lastly, the Los Angeles Angels could be an under-the-radar stack against Yusei Kikuchi. While everyone knows Kikuchi struggled last year, the masses likely won't have the coin to pay up for Mike Trout ($4,500) and Anthony Rendon ($4,000) unless they either fade the top Coors bats or pay down at pitcher. Justin Upton ($3,200) shouldn't be this cheap versus a southpaw, and David Fletcher ($2,800) is a low-cost leadoff bat. Albert Pujols ($2,000) has lost quite a bit, but he's priced at the minimum and posted a .340 wOBA and 44.8% fly-ball rate in this split in 2019.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.