MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/11/20 on FanDuel
Sometimes, we can afford to either just dip our toes into stacking Coors Field or disregard it entirely. In doing so, we're taking on risk, but with the high salaries of all players attached to that stadium, any sort of non-shootout can be counted as a win.
That ain't happening today.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are facing Kyle Freeland, and we're going to want to jam in as many of their bats as we can. It's going to be the driving force in dictating what we do elsewhere.
This makes pitcher selection critical, so here's a rundown of the starters on the slate, sorted by their FanDuel salaries. The individual numbers are from starts they made in 2019, and the opposing numbers are based on current active rosters against that pitcher's handedness in 2019.
| Pitcher | Salary | Opponent | SIERA | Strikeout % | Walk % | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | $10,500 | ATL | 3.88 | 28.5% | 8.4% | 22.7% | 106 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | $9,600 | TEX | -- | -- | -- | 25.5% | 89 |
| Dinelson Lamet | $9,000 | MIL | 3.61 | 33.6% | 9.6% | 22.8% | 102 |
| Trevor Williams | $8,100 | SFG | 5.08 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 24.0% | 89 |
| Max Fried | $7,700 | WAS | 3.83 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 20.2% | 106 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | $7,500 | BOS | 4.21 | 20.9% | 3.2% | 19.7% | 112 |
| J.A. Happ | $7,300 | KAN | 4.77 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 21.7% | 88 |
| Brett Anderson | $7,000 | SDP | 5.17 | 12.1% | 6.6% | 24.5% | 107 |
| Kevin Gausman | $6,700 | PIT | 4.41 | 23.6% | 7.3% | 20.1% | 94 |
| Kyle Gibson | $6,500 | HOU | 4.27 | 22.4% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 129 |
| Ryan Weber | $6,100 | TAM | 5.16 | 13.2% | 3.8% | 24.3% | 99 |
| Mike Montgomery | $6,000 | NYY | 4.74 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 23.6% | 126 |
| Wade LeBlanc | $5,900 | MIN | 5.01 | 16.9% | 5.1% | 20.4% | 123 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | $5,800 | BAL | 4.91 | 21.7% | 9.7% | 21.5% | 86 |
| Luke Weaver | $5,700 | COL | 3.84 | 26.5% | 5.4% | 22.5% | 86 |
| Kyle Freeland | $5,500 | ARI | 5.19 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 21.5% | 112 |
As enticing as Patrick Corbin ($10,500) is, it'd be tough to afford him and a Diamondbacks stack. Instead, we could give some thought to Dinelson Lamet ($9,000) at a $1,500 discount.
Lamet is facing the Milwaukee Brewers, who have trimmed down their offense a bit, making this a mid-level matchup for Lamet. Lamet came back from Tommy John last year with a vengeance, striking out 33.6% of the batters he faced, the highest mark on the slate. You'll need a low-cost second stack in order to pair Lamet with the Diamondbacks, but he's worth it.
Lamet works well because the falloff after him is pretty steep. We can at least see a path to a ceiling game for Max Fried ($7,700) and Kevin Gausman ($6,700), though, making them the top true values.
Fried is facing the Washington Nationals, who are still a good offense, but they're less fearsome against lefties with Anthony Rendon out of town. Fried finished last year with the second-best SIERA on the slate, and his 24.6% strikeout rate ranks third among non-Coors pitchers. Getting a talented pitcher in a non-gruesome matchup at this salary is always a boon.
The case for Gausman is obviously more obscure given that he had a 6.07 ERA as a starter last year. Still, his strikeout rate was 23.6%, and he's facing a Pittsburgh Pirates roster littered with replacement-level hitters. Locking Gausman in at $6,700 would let you go nuts on Coors, so it's at least worth some thought.
From a stacking perspective, it should be pretty clear our top priority is Arizona. All the studs are in play. If you need some lower-salaried bats, though, both Nick Ahmed ($3,000) and Carson Kelly ($3,000) can get the job done. Although they'll hit sixth and eighth, respectively, we can worry less about that in such a hitting-friendly environment. Start your lineups by seeing which hitters you can get in this order.
The top value bats for the slate are on the Tampa Bay Rays. They're facing Ryan Weber, who struggled to get strikeouts both in the bullpen and the rotation last year. Ji-Man Choi ($2,600) doesn't have to worry about leaving for a pinch-hitter, and Hunter Renfroe ($2,700) always brings double-dong upside to the table. If you need help getting up to Arizona's studs, the Rays can be a crutch.
If you decide -- for some reason -- to not use the Diamondbacks or if you use Gausman at pitcher, then the Minnesota Twins' hitters stand out as another stacking outlet. They get Wade LeBlanc, who had a 16.9% strikeout rate as a starter last year. That's bad news against a lineup with this much thump. Byron Buxton ($2,400) will hit eighth but showed solid pop against lefties last year and is always a threat to swipe a bag. He can be your salary-saver to aid you in affording Miguel Sano ($4,000), Nelson Cruz ($3,800), and Josh Donaldson ($3,700).
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
