MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/6/20 on FanDuel
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FanDuel's MLB Sims Sports, a new free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- things like player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Here's the breakdown for today's main slate, which starts at 8:02 p.m. EST.
There's no hurler I feel amazing about, but Yu Darvish ($9,200) tops the slate for me despite a difficult road matchup with the Cincinnati Reds. Darvish was remarkable over the second half of last season, posting a 2.37 xFIP, 37.8% strikeout rate and 2.2% walk rate.
Zack Wheeler ($9,500), Chris Paddack ($9,000), Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,500) and Jose Berrios ($8,000) all have varying levels of appeal but also have warts, too -- mostly due to lackluster matchups. Of the group, I'll side with E-Rod, though the Milwaukee Brewers can swing it. Rodriguez had career-best clips in ground-ball rate (48.5%) and swinging-strike rate (11.7%) in 2019.
Instead of spending up for someone in the above group, I'd rather have A.J. Puk ($6,500). Puk gets a dream date with a San Francisco Giants team that was 28th in wOBA (.295) last season. Puk has barely pitched the last two years due to injury, but before that, he was an elite prospect who racked up a 38.6% strikeout rate in High-A in 2017 followed up by a 30.8% strikeout rate in Double-A.
The Boston Red Sox are at home against Eric Lauer, who allowed a 41.2% hard-hit rate last year while generating a mere 8.3% swinging-strike rate. Righties had a 42.3% hard-hit rate and 40.6% fly-ball rate versus Lauer. Boston has plenty of enticing right-handed bats, with J.D. Martinez ($3,800), Xander Bogaerts ($3,200) and Michael Chavis ($2,600) at the top of the heap. Lefties Rafael Devers ($3,700) and Andrew Benintendi ($3,000) -- who are hitting third and first, respectively -- are worth a look, too.
Antonio Senzatela, the owner of a 13.1% strikeout rate and 5.51 SIERA in 2019, is taking on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Whoo, boy. Outside of Cody Bellinger ($4,300), no one on the Dodgers is over $3,600. Per usual, they offer a slew of good options. Joc Pederson ($3,600), Mookie Betts ($3,400), Justin Turner ($3,000) and Max Muncy ($3,300) are hitting 1-2-3-5. You can stack the bottom of the lineup if you need to save coin as Corey Seager ($2,900), Will Smith ($2,800) and Gavin Lux ($2,300) are solid plays at their prices.
Lefty Patrick Sandoval looks like a promising prospect, and he did get whiffs last year (13.5% swinging-strike rate in 39 1/3 MLB frames). But he also gave up a 45.8% hard-hit rate and is taking on a Minnesota Twins offense that mauls lefties, putting up a .361 wOBA in the split a campaign ago. And the Twins are too cheap -- especially Josh Donaldson ($3,300), Miguel Sano ($3,200) and Nelson Cruz ($3,000), all of whom are proven lefty killers. Jorge Polanco ($2,600) is hitting second, and Mitch Garver ($3,200) is atop the lineup.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.