5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 8/19/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
John Means, SP, Baltimore Orioles ($6,200)
John Means is the fourth cheapest starting pitcher on tonight’s nine game slate, and that just doesn’t make any sense to me.
Means has certainly had his struggles recently, with an ugly 10.97 ERA over his past three starts, but context matters. The first start he left early due to injury and was subsequently placed on the injured list, and then that followed with back-to-back starts against the New York Yankees.
Tonight, Means faces the Kansas City Royals. The Royals currently have the third worst team-wide wRC+ and wOBA for the season. Means has still shown himself to be a very good starting pitcher who can take advantage of good matchups when he gets the opportunity, and his price tonight seems like an over-reaction to his recent struggles.
Trent Grisham, OF, Milwaukee Brewers ($3,200)
With Lorenzo Cain likely out of the lineup today, Trent Grisham is expected to lead off for the Milwaukee Brewers. Since his call-up, Grisham has hit pretty well. His .788 OPS isn’t eye-popping, but he’s done a great job at making good contact as shown by his low 13.9% soft-contact rate, and he's hitting a lot of fly balls, too, sitting on a 50.0% fly-ball rate.
His matchup tonight is St. Louis Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson. Hudson has struggled mightily in his two starts against Milwaukee this season, posting a 10.13 ERA and 2.50 WHIP with five home runs allowed in two starts against the Brewers this season. With Grisham at the top of the lineup potentially benefiting from a big night for the Brewers, I love having him in my lineups tonight.
David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks ($3,100)
This one is pretty simple -- David Peralta is very good against righties with a .860 OPS in 284 plate appearances this season.
His opposition is the other reason this is an easy call. He’ll face Colorado Rockies starter Chi Chi Gonzalez tonight. In his four starts in the majors, Gonzalez has a 6.57 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and a 14:16 walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB:K) in 24 ⅔ innings. He’s been in Triple-A most of the season, where he’s been just as bad with a 6.10 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and a 36:76 BB:K ratio in 87 innings.
I’m not sure why Peralta is as cheap as he is with the platoon advantage and the great matchup tonight, but he’s an easy play tonight.
Renato Nunez, 3B, Baltimore Orioles ($3,000)
Anthony Santander, OF, Baltimore Orioles ($3,100)
Renato Nunez is coming off a nice weekend in which he hit a three-run home run on Sunday against Nathan Eovaldi, and he's continued to hit the ball exceptionally hard as shown by his 82nd percentile average exit velocity and 76th percentile hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Anthony Santander is going through an extended hot stretch. In his last 30 games, Santander is slashing .307/.328/.559 with 7 home runs and 17 extra base hits. He’s established himself as a middle of the order bat and is surprisingly cheap with the great matchup tonight.
The matchup is the key piece to me loving an Orioles stack tonight. They will face Royals starter Jorge Lopez, who has been abysmal this season. In 85 ⅔ innings, Lopez has a 6.51 ERA, 5.44 FIP, 1.55 WHIP, and has allowed 18 home runs. Simply put, he’s just a really bad starting pitcher and has shown no signs of improvement recently with a 7.94 ERA over his last 10 appearances.
James Kohout is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, James Kohout also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username jt2115. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.