4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/9/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Walker Buehler OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-108)
There isn't much else to say about Walker Buehler, but we are witnessing what could be the breakout year for a perennial ace. Buehler could be considered the best pitcher on tonight's slate and comes in boasting a 29.0% strikeout rate, along with a 3.38 SIERA, both of which are top-13 in the entire league or better.
His 7.5 strikeout prop tonight has very, very little juice on it, and given the fact he has posted nine or more strikeouts four times in his last seven starts, the over is looking likely tonight.
He is up against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who only have a 21.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, a rate that is one of the better ones in the league.
That lower strikeout rate for the Diamondbacks hasn't slowed Buehler down this season, with him posting 20 strikeouts in his last 15 innings pitched against them. Our projections have Buehler going for 7.96 strikeouts tonight -- which is the highest projection of the night -- and have him hitting the over.
Shane Bieber OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+114)
Another strikeout prop to look at tonight comes via Shane Bieber, another pitcher making a name for himself this season.
Bieber is also in the conversation with Buehler, ranking in the top tier of pitchers with a strikeout rate 30.8% and SIERA 3.31, putting him as one of the best in the league.
Since the All-Star break, Bieber is seemingly going all gas and no breaks, with four of his five starts at eight strikeouts or more, including two complete games. The Cleveland Indians traded away Trevor Bauer, but they've seemingly found another young pitcher who can be just as dominant as he was.
Bieber is facing off against the always dangerous Minnesota Twins, who only have a 20.9% strikeout rate this season.
But even with the lower strikeout rate from the Twins, we still have Bieber projected to go for 7.58 strikeouts tonight, which is our second highest of the night behind Buehler. Bieber's 14.2% swinging-strike rate is elite and should help him keep this strikeout pace going through the second half of the season.
Stephen Strasburg UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Strasburg is no stranger to facing the Mets, as he has 124.2 innings pitched against them in his career, racking up 151 strikeouts in the process, which is good for 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings, per Baseball-Reference.
Strasburg comes in with a 29.5% strikeout rate this season, which is elite, but there could be some issues for Strasburg.
Since the All-Star break, the Mets are carrying a 106 wRC+ and a .205 ISO, both of which are actually top-10 in the league. They are showing to be a somewhat threatening offense, and we have Strasburg projected to pitch only 6.08 innings tonight.
If Strasburg isn't able to pitch deep into the game, he won't have the opportunity to rack up the strikeouts. And speaking of strikeouts, we have him projected for 6.66 strikeouts, hitting the under on his prop tonight.
Carlos Correa To Hit a Home Run (+270)
Carlos Correa is seemingly rounding back into form after missing time on the IL, and he now has four home runs in his last 10 games, so let's hope he can continue that tonight. He comes in with a .277 ISO, 43.1% hard-hit rate, and a high 27.3% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio versus righty pitchers. Elite numbers in a same-sided matchup are awesome -- especially when they line up perfectly versus the pitcher he is facing.
That pitcher is Dylan Bundy, who is allowing 2.41 home runs per nine innings to righties this season from a 45.3% fly-ball rate and a 22.4% home-run-to-fly-ball rate. With numbers like that, we have Correa projected as the second overall hitter to go deep tonight, coming in at fantastic odds.