4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/14/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Max Scherzer OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-122)
Max Scherzer comes in with one of the highest strikeout rates on the slate, but does that make his strikeout prop a must bet?
We see Scherzer with a 33.3% strikeout rate this season and, he comes in with nine or more strikeouts in three of his last four games. If you've been following the MLB in any capacity you know that Scherzer is as elite as they come and one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league. All of that is true this season and we should be looking to side with one of the most consistent pitchers and his 8.5 strikeout prop tonight.
He is up against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, who come in with a 22.7% strikeout rate this season, which is 19th in the league. They don't chase every pitch but they also aren't the most disciplined team in the league, which is why our projections have him at 8.61 strikeouts tonight, which would hit the over on his prop.
David Dahl To Hit a Home Run (+300)
The Colorado Rockies come in with an implied team total set at a whopping 6.68, which is the highest on the slate, but will we see the long ball from them tonight?
When it comes to talking about the Rockies, everyone goes to Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Trevor Story, but can often forget about David Dahl. That is reflected in the fact that Dahl has the highest odds (least likely) to hit a home run tonight, sitting at +300. The other three players are all fully able to hit one over the fence but Dahl should be right there with them, as he comes in with a .213 ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season, along with having all six of his home runs against them.
His odds clearly offer the best value and the most bang for your buck, we just need him to show his power versus righty pitchers tonight.
Blake Snell OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)
The former Cy Young winner has a matchup versus a team who doesn't strike out a ton, does that mean we go with the under on his prop?
The short answer is no. We don't go with the under, we want to side with the over. Blake Snell is up against the Los Angeles Angels, who come in with a 16.2% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers this season, which is the absolute lowest in the league. They simply don't give up a ton at the plate, but our projections still side with Snell tonight and have him going for 7.17 strikeouts, which is the third highest for pitchers.
Snell is carrying a 34.5% strikeout rate this season and has seven or more strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. We might not see him reach 10+ strikeouts tonight, but hitting the over on 6.5 is fully in the cards.
Nick Senzel To Hit a Home Run (+500)
At +500 odds to hit a home run, Nick Senzel provides massive value tonight.
The Cincinnati Reds are at home and come in with an implied team total sitting at 5.15, ready to take on Jesse Chavez, who isn't a good pitcher. Chavez doesn't have a massive sample size this season, so if we look back to last year, we see that he allowed 1.27 homers per nine innings to righty hitters, along with a 34.3% fly-ball rate, and a modest 31.8% hard-hit rate. Those numbers are echoed this season, just with a slight variance due to fewer innings pitched.
Senzel has looked great since being called up and is carrying a .186 ISO, 38.2% hard-hit rate and a 35.3% fly-ball rate against right-handed pitchers. Those are strong numbers for a same-sided matchup, where he has hit three of his five major league home runs so far.