5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 6/14/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Derek Dietrich, 2B, Cincinnati Reds ($2,900)
The Cincinnati Reds offense is in a great spot with the Texas Rangers going with a bullpen game tonight, opening with Jesse Chavez. The Rangers' relievers have had a really shaky season, with the fourth-worst SIERA (4.51) of any group in the majors, while the 40.9% hard-hit rate they're giving up is the second-highest.
Dietrich has been on a tear over 179 plate appearances so far in 2019, with a .391 wOBA and massive .373 ISO. He's not going to keep going yard on 30.4% of his fly-balls as we've seen, but considering his career-high 40.9% hard-hit rate and 49.1% fly-ball rate, we know that his strong production isn't a fluke.
It's not often we get such a productive player priced this low, and it's even less often that we get that when they're in a good matchup. Take full advantage.
Mark Canha, 1B, Oakland Athletics ($2,800)
Canha is another guy absolutely raking this year, with a .383 wOBA and .312 ISO over 135 plate appearances. His production also probably isn't sustainable, with a 22.7% HR/FB rate, but he's got room for his stats to regress and also remain strong.
He's also no stranger to mashing left-handed pitching, and dating back to 2018 he boasts a .386 wOBA and .311 ISO on a 39.6% hard-hit and 44.3% fly-ball rate over 212 plate appearances in the split.
Jason Castro, C, Minnesota Twins ($3,000)
The Minnesota Twins show a hefty 5.90-run implied total in tonight's matchup with right-hander Brad Keller and the Kansas City Royals. The 23-year-old Keller posted a fairly unexciting 4.51 SIERA as a rookie in 2018 and has an ugly 5.39 so far in 2019. That gives him a 4.85 career-average with an uninspiring 16.1% strikeout and 9.7% walk rate.
He has had an especially tough time with left-handed bats, giving up a 4.85 xFIP compared to a 4.26 against righties, while his walk rate jumps to 13.6% in the split.
Jason Castro has bounced back from a poor 2018 season with a .385 wOBA so far in 2019. That jump in production is backed up by some serious contact, topping his previous career-high hard-hit rate by over 14% with a mark of 51.4% so far, which he has paired with a 10.0% soft-hit rate and 40.0% fly-ball rate over 114 plate appearances.
Brock Holt, 2B, Boston Red Sox ($2,600)
Another plus matchup for the Boston Red Sox, another night where Brock Holt is one of the only ways to get cheap exposure to the offense.
This isn't just any old plus matchup, either. The Baltimore Orioles will start righty Andrew Cashner is on pace for his third consecutive season with a SIERA worse than 5.00. For as egregious as he's been overall, his work against left-handed hitters is especially rough, with a 5.34 xFIP since 2017. The O's relievers also a weak spot, with the fifth-worst SIERA of any group in the majors.
Holt is capable against righties, with a .337 wOBA dating back to 2018 (345 plate appearances), and with the Sox' 5.44-run implied total he has plenty of upside.
Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers ($2,400)
Aguilar has an ugly .270 wOBA this season, but that comes with only a .236 BABIP -- down from .309 last year and a .301 career-average. His contact is down some, but a 36.8% hard-hit is still very much a fine mark, and shouldn't lead to such a low BABIP. We can expect some serious regression.
He's proven himself to be plenty dangerous against southpaws, with a .347 wOBA and .207 ISO on a 44.4% hard-hit rate over his career. Drew Pomeranz is already struggling this year, with a 4.58 SIERA and 10.6% walk rate, and with a 5.00 xFIP against right-handed sticks since 2018 he's likely to have some struggles with Aguilar's power.
Our models also love Aguilar here, and he is our top projected point-per-dollar value on the slate.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.