4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/4/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Stephen Strasburg OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-118)
Stephen Strasburg comes in as one of the best pitchers on the slate and has a high strikeout prop tonight, but it's worth considering tonight.
Currently, Strasburg has a 31.3% strikeout rate, which is the second best of any pitcher on this slate who qualifies, and is now up against the Chicago White Sox, who have a 26.4% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers. Over his last eight starts, Strasburg has posted nine or more five times and is truly showing the form he is known for.
numberFire has Strasburg projected for 7.82 strikeouts tonight, but with the White Sox struggling even more than usual over the past two weeks -- a 27.2% strikeout rate versus righty pitchers -- Strasburg is in a spot to capitalize on it and hit the over. It also helps that there is very little juice on the over and maintains good odds.
Blake Snell OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-165)
The strikeout prop for Blake Snell tonight seems a bit too low given how strong he has been this season, despite "struggling" in his two most recent starts.
Struggling for Snell is all relative since he has posted just five and seven strikeouts in his last two starts, but comes in with a 34.9% strikeout rate, which is the best on the slate. The juice on this prop isn't amazing, but it has some strong potential tonight since our models have Snell projected for 7.51 strikeouts against the Detroit Tigers, who hold a 26.4% strikeout rate versus lefty pitchers this season.
The reigning Cy Young winner can push towards double-digit strikeouts seemingly any time on the mound, and this matchup and lower strikeout prop looks worth attacking tonight.
Renato Nunez To Hit a Home Run (+270)
Renato Nunez comes in with the second-best odds to hit a home run in this game, and with how strong he has been recently, he should be on home run watch every time he is at the plate.
The Baltimore Orioles are visiting the Texas Rangers in what should be the best hitting environment on the slate due to the overall park factor and the first pitch temperature set to be around 87 degrees. Nunez comes in with a .264 ISO this season but has been on an absolute HEATER over the past two weeks, and if there is one thing that is true, you never walk away from a heater.
Since May 21st -- yes, a small sample size -- he has a 58.3% hard-hit rate, a .545 ISO, and seven home runs. He is completely crushing the ball right now and should be able to keep that going tonight versus Drew Smyly, who is allowing a 51.7% hard-hit rate and a 46.2% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters this season.
Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres UNDER 7.5 Runs (-102)
First off, the odds are almost even, presenting an opportunity to nearly double up on a bet, which is always a plus. Next, the Padres have Chris Paddack on the mound tonight, who has been borderline unhittable while at home this season, posting a 2.82 xFIP and 11.08 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing just five earned runs in 31.2 innings pitched.
The Phillies are actually below average this season against right-handed pitchers, posting a 91 wRC+ (19th in the league) and a .164 ISO (20th in the league). This should put the under in a good spot since our models have Paddack allowing just 2.02 runs tonight.