4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 5/31/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Patrick Corbin UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+106)
Corbin comes in with 12 strikeouts over his last two starts and is carrying a 28.0% strikeout rate overall this season, which is the third best of any pitcher in action tonight. That is strong, but the matchup tonight might suggest otherwise on his ability to rack up the whiffs.
He is facing off against the Reds who have a 20.9% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the 9th-lowest in the league. Despite the Reds being a very average team overall, they don't chase pitches and give free outs to opposing pitchers. Getting positive odds on a prop is always good and this strikeout prop should be considered tonight.
David Dahl To Hit a Home Run (+230)
The Colorado Rockies come in with an implied team total set at a whopping 6.94 tonight and that shouldn't come as a surprise since they are at home in the best hitter's park in the league. Dahl and the Rockies are up against a journeyman pitcher in Jackson, who has never been one to avoid and with him allowing a 36.2% hard-contact rate and 42.9% fly-ball rate to lefty hitters last season, we want to be actively targeting him.
While at home this season, Dahl has a .242 ISO, .411 wOBA, and a modest 27.1% hard-contact rate, which are strong numbers that are shining through right now with two home runs on this current homestand.
Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves UNDER 9.0 Runs (+100)
There is no doubt that Foltynewicz got off to a slow start this season after starting it on the IL. In his first four starts totaling 21.1 innings, he allowed 19 earned runs, but in his two most recent starts of 12 innings, he has allowed just two earned runs.
He is getting back to the form we saw him at last season and that should continue tonight versus the Tigers, who currently have a 71 wRC+ (30th in the league), .142 ISO (29th in the league), and a 26.2% strikeout rate (3rd in the league), versus right-handed pitchers.
The Tigers are unequivocally one of the worst teams in the majors versus righty pitchers and their inability to produce offense should allow Foltynewicz to help secure the under 9.0 runs in this game.
Hunter Pence To Hit a Home Run (+350)
It appears that Hunter Pence is on a mission to prove everyone wrong this season and is going to continue to crush the long ball.
Double-digit home runs already have him surpassing his total from all of last season, and they put him just a few shy of passing what he had hit dating back to 2014. The power is clearly there for him and that should continue tonight with the platoon advantage against Danny Duffy in what should be one of the best hitting environments on the slate, as first pitch is set to be around 88 degrees.
That platoon advantage should be strong considering Duffy allowed 1.50 homers per nine innings, a 38.1% hard-contact rate, and a whopping 44.6% fly-ball rate to righty hitters last season.
Pence might not keep the homers up all season, but his .327 ISO versus left-handed pitchers currently is nothing to run from. Great odds on this prop for a hitter who has all the power you could possibly want.