DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 8/6/18
Every day is unique for daily fantasy baseball, which is both a blessing and a challenge. Although we can’t simply plug and play our favorite studs day in and day out, each slate presents us with a chance for a new gem to vault us up the leaderboards.
Through the use of numberFire’s tools, we can better identify the players primed to succeed each day, making the process of filling out a lineup just that much easier. In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy looking team to put up some big point totals.
Which names stand out for today on DraftKings' main slate? Let’s check it out, starting with the pitchers.
Pitchers to Target
Trevor Bauer ($12,300 on DraftKings): Bauer is having a career year in 2018, and he is the best pitcher on Monday's 10-game slate. While his 3.27 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) ranks 10th in baseball, the right-hander ranks first in SIERA among those on today's slate while coming in second in both strikeout rate (30.7%) and swinging-strike rate (13.0%). His matchup with the Minnesota Twins makes things especially juicy. Against righties, Minnesota is 13th in weighted on-base average (wOBA) this season, and they've been more susceptible to strikeouts since Brian Dozier was traded at the deadline. In the 94 plate appearances since the trade, the Twins are striking out 26.6% of the time against righties -- the sixth-highest rate in MLB. This all makes Bauer's today's biggest favorite for a win (-209 on the moneyline).
Charlie Morton ($11,100): For as good as Bauer's been this season, the 34-year-old Morton isn't far behind. He's sixth in the league in strikeout rate (30.8%) and leads the slate in that same category. Meanwhile, his 49.8% ground-ball rate is 10th, leading to a career-best 3.14 xFIP. His opponent tonight, the San Francisco Giants, will be without the injured Brandon Belt, which puts them in an even more vulnerable spot. Even with Belt, the Giants are 23rd in wOBA against righties and 27th against them in the second half alone. Their 25.8% strikeout rate in the split is sixth-worst in the second half and speaks to their struggles. Morton's Houston Astros aren't the biggest favorites, but the Giants' 3.24 implied total is tonight's lowest, and AT&T Park is one of the worst home-run parks in baseball, so Morton should be the preferred high-end option in cash.
Luke Weaver ($7,200): The cheaper options aren't really great tonight, with a game being played at Coors Field and another in the heat of Globe Life Park. But if you're skipping past Noah Syndergaard ($9,600) and Cole Hamels ($9,000) in favor of some savings, Weaver is in as great a spot as any. He's been inconsistent, posting four games at or below 3.8 DraftKings points in his last seven starts. However, he's also had three games of at least 18.7 while fanning 19 across those starts. And the upside for that is there tonight against the Miami Marlins, who rank 28th in wOBA overall (.294) and 27th against righties (.298). Their 23.0% strikeout rate is 10th, and it moves to 26.9% -- tied for 3rd-worst in the Majors -- when narrowed down to the second half. There's a reason Miami shows just a 3.62 implied total tonight.
Hitters to Target
Nolan Arenado ($5,400): The Colorado Rockies are back at Coors Field, and that sends us right in the direction of Nolan Arenado. At home this season, Arenado owns a .471 wOBA, .332 isolated power (ISO and a 42.4% hard-hit rate. He isn't in the perfect spot as he's taking on righty Joe Musgrove, but Arenado's .384 wOBA and .222 ISO at home against righties is nothing to scoff at. And if Musgrove can't turn things around from a poor July (4.59 xFIP), the hard-hitting third baseman should take advantage.
Giancarlo Stanton ($5,000): Absent Aaron Judge (wrist), the New York Yankees have gone 3-6 and are currently on a five-game slide. But Giancarlo Stanton and the offense aren't much to blame. While the Bronx Bombers have scored four or more runs in seven of those nine games, Stanton owns a respectable .323 wOBA with a 55.2% hard-hit rate and 2 home runs. Tonight, he draws righty Dylan Covey and the Chicago White Sox. Covey is bottom-four on the slate in several categories, with his 7.0% swinging-strike rate coming in second-worst. Stanton has struck out quite a bit against righties, but he shouldn't have that same issue here. Target him and his career .262 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Trevor Story ($4,900): With Story's price where it's at, stacking him with Arenado is not out of the question on Monday night -- and there's a number of reasons to do it. First, the Rockies sport the night's second-highest implied total (5.64 runs). Likely hitting fifth, Story should have his opportunities to do damage against Musgrove. Righties have a 38.3% fly-ball rate and 32.4% hard-hit rate against him this season, and Story comes in with some nice numbers of his own -- 43.3% fly-ball rate and 44.3% hard-hit rate -- without the platoon advantage.
Gleyber Torres ($4,200): Outside of Coors Field, the Yankees are a team worth stacking tonight. Against Covey, their 5.44 implied total sits third on the slate, and there are some cheaper options to go around. At second base, Torres could fly under the radar. He has just 10 DraftKings points with 6 strikeouts to zero hits over his last four games. However, he's shown off power against righties, to the tune of a .240 ISO and 45.5% hard-hit rate.
Greg Bird ($3,900): From the other side of the plate, Bird brings some nice upside at the first base spot. Like most of the lineup, he's been a little off of late, but he owns a ridiculous 51.4% fly-ball rate along with a 43.8% hard-hit rate and .208 ISO against righties in 2018. Covey, on the other hand, has allowed a 4.64 xFIP, 39.2% hard-hit rate and .346 wOBA to lefty bats. Just confirm that Bird is starting before you lock him in.
Ian Happ ($3,700): Speaking of low-priced bats with pop, Happ is one of those high-risk, high-reward guys for tournament lineups. For he and his team's date with Jake Junis and the Kansas City Royals, the Chicago Cubs carry a meaty 5.17 implied total. Happ, who projects to hit sixth, enters with 12 home runs and a .343 wOBA on the season, with 9 dingers, a .362 wOBA and .200 ISO against righties like Junis. The Royals' starter has been hit up by lefties this year for a .360 wOBA and 5.08 xFIP coming on a 40.5% hard-hit rate and 41.8% fly-ball rate.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.