​Tampa Bay Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 2/12/22

Starting at 12:10 p.m. EST, we have 11 races at Tampa Bay Downs. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets to make at FanDuel Racing.

As always, check for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.

(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)

Baby Yoda and Cajun Casanova, Race 7

FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/5 and 8/1

Race 7 is the $100,000 Pelican Stakes for older horses, and it's set for 6 furlongs. The numberFire data has the projected order of finish as Baby Yoda (6/5), Bank on Shea (7/2) and Pudding (4/1).

Baby Yoda dropped from a Grade 1 race where she finished second behind a strong horse. Bank On Shea should improve in his second start off a layoff.

Guaranteed Tip Sheet notes that Cajun Casanova (8/1) has lifted his speed figure in five consecutive races, including his last race with better fractions.

Peaceful Surprise and Princess Elin, Race 8

FanDuel Racing Odds: 10/1 and 12/1

Race 8 is the $100,000 Suncoast Stakes for three-year-old fillies going a mile and 40 yards. The top pick by numberFire's model is the heavy favorite, Nest (3/5), followed by Alittleloveandluck (5/1).

Nest offers no value, but she’ll be tough to beat having won the Grade 2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct last time out. If you add her, include her in the late Pick 4. Nest had some sluggish workouts over the heavier, sandy course at Tampa, but she has the top jockey/trainer combo of Irad Ortiz Jr. and Todd Pletcher on her side.

Alittleloveandluck is on a two-race win streak and posted the highest last-race speed figure in this field. Princess Elin (12/1) won her debut at Tampa Bay with a solid speed figure and has a pair of works over the track. Peaceful Surprise (10/1) won her debut with a strong effort at Tampa. Guaranteed tip Sheet notes she was well-bet in that one and posted the best late-pace number. She should be rolling late.

Casual Causeway and Shipsational, Race 10

FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1 and 6/1

Race 10 is the $250,000 Sam F. Davis (G3) for three-year-olds, and it's going 1 1/16 miles. This is a prep race for the Tampa Bay Derby, and the top four finishers earn qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby (10-4-2-1). This favorite and top pick of numberFire is Casual Causeway (3/1), with Shipsational (6/1) a top challenger and expected to hit the board.

Casual Causeway is the horse to beat and will likely get bet down with top jockey Ortiz riding. He’s been off since November but has faced the toughest competition. He hit the board in both the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity and Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club.

Shipsational is the only horse in the field to hit triple-digit speed ratings. He can rate off the pace and has won 3-of-4 starts. His work tab is solid entering this minor Kentucky Derby prep.

Golden Glider (12/1) is undefeated in two starts, and Make It Big (9/2) is 3-for-3 and will likely be running on or near the lead.