FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 2/18/23
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features seven matches. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Leeds (+190) at Everton (+150)
Over 2.5 Goals: +102 | Most Likely to Score: Calvert-Lewin (+175)
Southampton (+800) at Chelsea (-270)
Over 2.5 Goals: -110 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang (+130)
Fulham (+410) at Brighton (-155)
Over 2.5 Goals: -132 | Most Likely to Score: Ferguson (+150)
Crystal Palace (+360) at Brentford (-120)
Over 2.5 Goals: +112 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+120)
Manchester City (-330) at Nottingham Forest (+900)
Over 2.5 Goals: -156 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-165)
Bournemouth (+480) at Wolves (-155)
Over 2.5 Goals: +112 | Most Likely to Score: Cunha (+160)
Liverpool (+175) at Newcastle (+150)
Over 2.5 Goals: -130 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+180)
Matchweek 24 features three big-six sides, with Liverpool, Chelsea, and Manchester City all in action on a seven-game main slate.
Manchester City (-330 to win) are the largest favorite on the slate, and Erling Haaland ($24) has the best odds to score (-160) of any player expected to be active on Saturday.
Chelsea (-270 to win) are the second-largest favorite, followed by Brighton and Wolves (-155 to win), and Brentford (-120 to win). Newcastle and Everton (+150 to win) round out the slate as slight favorites.
Coming off their midweek victory over Arsenal, City are fully back to their winning ways and should be extremely popular here. City's return to the top of the table, combined with the continued struggles of Chelsea and Liverpool, should make Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne ($22), and Jack Grealish ($18) the cornerstones of a large number of lineups this weekend.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Riyad Mahrez, FWD/MID, Manchester City
FanDuel Salary: $18
Mahrez was the first player subbed off the pitch against Arsenal on Wednesday after an ineffective appearance that saw him produce just 1.3 FanDuel points. In stark contrast to his performance, Haaland, De Bruyne, and Grealish all scored and were impactful down the stretch against the Gunners.
While Mahrez won't fly completely under-the-radar, there is a chance he is the least popular of City's forwards on Saturday. His odds to score (+155) are better than De Bruyne (+210) and twice as good as Grealish (+310). Mahrez has had more misses than hits recently, with just one goal and one performance with more than 16.0 FanDuel points in this last four matches. Prior to that he scored at least 21.0 FanDuel points in five of six fixtures, including a 57.3, two-goal performance against Tottenham.
In the middle of a slight dip in production, coming off a poor performance in a marquee showdown, Mahrez has a great chance to bounce back here. He offers exposure to the largest favorite on the slate at potential lower draft percentage than his in-form teammates.
Alexander Isak, FWD/MID, Newcastle
FanDuel Salary: $17
Saturday's clash between Newcastle and Liverpool is an interesting one. Liverpool are coming off a two-goal victory over Everton but were winless in their four matches before that fixture. Newcastle sit fourth on the league table but have just one win in their last six matches, with five draws and only three goals scored over that period.
Newcastle's inability to score goals will meet a Liverpool defense that has conceded ten times in their last six matches, tied for second worst in the league over that stretch. With Callum Wilson still dealing with a minor hamstring injury and Newcastle having an eye on their upcoming League Cup Final, Isak could see another start on Saturday.
Isak's odds to score (+220) are even with Roberto Firmino (+220) and only slightly worse than Mohamed Salah ($20) and Darwin Nunez ($19). Despite similar odds to score, he should be less popular than at least two-thirds of that trio. Isak was productive at the start of the season before missing extended time, scoring three goals over a four-game stretch from August into mid-September. He is worth consideration for large-field tournaments this weekend facing a shaky Liverpool defense.
Joao Gomes, FWD/MID, Wolves
FanDuel Salary: $16
Gomes is not a lock to start on Saturday, but if he does, he is well-positioned to build off his impressive debut last Saturday. Following his January arrival at Wolves from Flamengo, Gomes scored in his first appearance on Saturday, producing 22.6 FanDuel points in a substitute role.
If he gets the start this weekend, he will face a Bournemouth side allowing a league-worst 2.0 goals per match this season. Wolves have three wins in their last four, with five goals in their last two fixtures, and are on-paper favorites to extend their good run of form on Saturday.
Gomes' salary of $16 places him in a range with several well-known forwards, including Eno Fernandez ($17), Kaoru Mitoma ($17), and Firmino. He should go overlooked despite the excellent matchup and is worth considering this weekend if he is handed his first Premier League start.