FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 2/18/23
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Leeds (+190) at Everton (+150)
Over 2.5 Goals: +102 | Most Likely to Score: Calvert-Lewin (+175)
Southampton (+800) at Chelsea (-270)
Over 2.5 Goals: -110 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang (+130)
Fulham (+410) at Brighton (-155)
Over 2.5 Goals: -132 | Most Likely to Score: Ferguson (+150)
Crystal Palace (+360) at Brentford (-125)
Over 2.5 Goals: +112 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+120)
Manchester City (-330) at Nottingham Forest (+900)
Over 2.5 Goals: -156 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-165)
Bournemouth (+480) at Wolves (-155)
Over 2.5 Goals: +112 | Most Likely to Score: Cunha (+160)
Liverpool (+175) at Newcastle (+150)
Over 2.5 Goals: -130 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+185)
This is a whopper of a slate, but one side stands out from the rest -- Manchester City.
City are -900 to win at Forest and are -278 to go over 1.5 goals. Both of those are slate-best marks by a mile. Even with so many options are our disposal on this seven-gamer, City are well worth stacking, although I'll mostly cap it at only two City attackers. One thing to note with City is that they have a Champions League match coming up next, so couple that with a soft matchup against Forest and we could see City rest a star or two.
Erling Haaland ($24; -165 anytime goal odds) paces the slate in goal odds and is an obvious top option. He's a silly -290 to score or assist. He could break the slate with a multi-goal outing. However, he's been pretty goal-or-nothing in recent weeks and will likely be mega-chalk. I lean toward fading him and plugging in two of City's other attackers.
Anyone who starts for City is a viable play. Phil Foden ($17; +195), Riyad Mahrez ($18; +150) and Kevin De Bruyne ($22; +200) are my favorite options. KDB is -180 to score/assist. Foden hasn't started lately but may get the call if City rotate. I'll be overweight on him if he starts.
After City, I will prioritize getting exposure to Chelsea, who are -200 to score at least twice.
The Blues have been disappointing this campaign, but they may be turning the corner. They've generated at least 1.2 expected goals (xG), per FBRef, in six straight matches across all competitions, including 2.1 xG at Dortmund midweek. The public sentiment on Chelsea is super low at the moment, and with City on the slate, I doubt many people pair two Chelsea attackers together. But they hit the criteria we're looking for when it comes to stacking and could maul Southampton, a side that's conceded 40 times through 22 EPL matches.
Kai Havertz ($18; +175), Joao Felix ($21; +180), Hakim Ziyech ($12; +250) and Mykhailo Mudryk ($15; +200) started in a front four at Dortmund. Felix is -120 to score/assist and has looked lively since his move to Chelsea. Ziyech and Mudryk are outstanding point-per-dollar plays if they start. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang ($14; +130) has the team's best goal odds and would be the slate's premier value play if he got a start at striker. There's a chance we see David Fofana ($13; +195) at striker as the Blues search for goals. He'd also be a top-shelf value option.
Brighton (-149 to go over 1.5 goals) and Wolves (-133) are both in good spots.
Wolves can distance themselves from the relegation battle by beating Bournemouth, and they are -155 to do just that. Matheus Cunha ($15; +160) is of one my favorite plays on this slate -- maybe the favorite outside of City's and Chelsea's attackers. Cunha has match-best goal odds and can terrorize a Cherries defense that's shipped 44 goals in 22 matches. He's easy to jam in at this salary and fits alongside high-salary studs from the big favorites.
As for Brighton, they're home to Fulham. The Cottagers have been a very fantasy-friendly team this season, with a total of 64 goals being scored over their 23 league matches. Brighton aren't shy about attacking, so this could wind up being a pretty fun clash. It's -132 to go over 2.5 goals. Karou Mitoma ($17; +175) and Evan Ferguson ($18; +150) have the Seagulls' top goal odds.
Brentford's Ivan Toney ($21; +120) has to be on our radar. He's got the slate's best goal odds outside of Haaland, and his penalty prowess is always a feather in his DFS cap. Salaried up around City's and Chelsea's big guns, Toney might not be as popular as he should be.
We need to at least touch on the Liverpool-Newcastle match. It's -130 to go over 2.5 goals, and I like the Newcastle side of things. Liverpool had conceded at least 1.6 xG in four straight outings prior to rolling past Everton in their most recent match. The Magpies can get at this Reds defense. Callum Wilson ($17; +185) or Alexander Isak ($17; +210) will start up top for Newcastle.
Added time -- Whenever there is a chance to get Mohamed Salah ($20; +195) at low popularity, we have to take notice. He could be a massive swing play if he hits for a ceiling game in a tough spot at Newcastle. ... Aleksandr Mitrovic ($20; +185) carries nice goal odds and isn't going to be popular due to a difficult matchup at Brighton. There are paths to him being a GPP-winning contrarian play, especially if that match delivers on its -134 odds to go over 2.5 goals. ... At home versus Leeds in a pivotal relegation matchup, Everton may turn to Neal Maupay ($14; +220), who isn't a bad shout as a value play.
For most of this season, we've been robbed of getting to pair together Reece James ($14) and Ben Chilwell ($8) due to injuries. They started at full-back for Chelsea midweek at Dortmund, and they're in a smash spot against Southampton. If you want attacking upside at defender, this is where you need to be.
James is +155 to score/assist while Chilwell is +230. Marc Cucurella ($9) is also +230. I am hoping Chilwell starts and that Chelsea go with a back-three, which frees up their wing-backs to do more attacking. If that's the case, Chilwell would be a no-brainer low-salary way to get a piece of the Blues.
The Newcastle-Liverpool game gives us some good full-back plays. Kieran Tripper ($16) has been a DFS force this season and should be able to amass points on both ends of the pitch. He's +250 to score/assist and handles a lot of set-piece work. Trent Alexander-Arnold ($12) hasn't been his usual self but still has as high of a ceiling as anyone at the position -- even if he hasn't hit for a true spike game in a while. He's +200 to score/assist. Andrew Robertson ($12) is a pivot away from Trent and is a decent +270 to score or assist.
The defenders for Southampton and Nottingham Forest have high floors in matches in which they should take on a ton of pressure. Due to injuries, Forest will likely give us a value center-back, and WhoScored projects that to be Joe Worrall ($9). He'll be a core play for me. Felipe ($10), the other center-back, is firmly in play, too. For Southampton, Mohamed Salisu ($13) is up there in salary but is averaging 16.1 FanDuel points per game. Romain Perraud ($8) and Jan Bednarek ($9) make sense, too, if they start.
Added time -- Wolves' Nelson Semedo ($10) and Ryan Aït-Nouri ($9) should have plenty of opportunities to get forward against Bournemouth. ... Kyle Walker ($7) is more appealing if Manchester City go with a back four. He usually doesn't do much in attack but might get forward more than usual in a friendly matchup and could be given a little more freedom with Joao Cancelo gone. ... Issa Diop ($10) has a decent floor in a matchup at Brighton.
With so much attacking talent on this slate, I want to save a little salary at goalie. That puts me on Jordan Pickford ($10) and David Raya ($12), both of whom have decent home matchups.
Raya is the better play between the two; you just need to fine $2 more to get to him. Raya is +135 to keep a clean sheet and -125 to win, compared to Pickford's +200 clean-sheet odds and +150 win odds. Palace have generated the second-fewest xG this campaign, and the Bees have conceded only 10 times in 11 home EPL matches.
Pickford and Everton should be more solid defensively with Sean Dyche at the controls, and this fixture against Leeds is a pivotal one for both sides. At times, matches like this can become cagey affairs as no one wants to make a mistake. I like Everton's chances to win more than their +150 moneyline implies, and if they can get in front, they'll likely become very defensive and look to secure a clean sheet. On top of that, the Toffees have been flimsy enough on defense this year that we can count on Pickford to give us decent save volume, too. It's a nice combo.
If you have the coin, Ederson ($14), Jose Sa ($13) and Kepa Arrizabalga ($13) are very good picks. Ederson is -105 to keep a clean sheet and -330 to win, two slate-leading clips. The drawback with him is the same as always -- if City concede, he'll probably have almost no save volume to fall back on, so he needs a clean-sheet win to pay off his salary. Sa and Kepa are each +120 to keep a clean sheet and have soft home matchups. I like the idea of stacking Sa and Cunha to take advantage of a bad Bournemouth side.
Added time -- Robert Sanchez ($12) is +145 to keep a clean sheet at home against Fulham. If the game ends up being fairly open, that's not necessarily a bad thing for Sanchez as it could lead to him making a handful of saves. ... Nick Pope ($11) can pop as a contrarian play. While it's a little scary to use a goalie against Liverpool, the Reds haven't been that great going forward, and Newcastle's defense has permitted just six goals in 11 home matches. ... Keylor Navas ($7) is a bet-on-talent dart who could come good if he can keep the damage to a goal or two versus City.