FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 2/11/23
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features six matches. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Slate Overview
Tottenham (+110) at Leicester (+240)
Over 2.5 Goals: -134 | Most Likely to Score: Kane (+110)
Brighton (+100) at Crystal Palace (+280)
Over 2.5 Goals: +100 | Most Likely to Score: Ferguson (+190)
Nottingham Forest (+320) at Fulham (-115)
Over 2.5 Goals: +102 | Most Likely to Score: Mitrovic (+100)
Brentford (+650) at Arsenal (-230)
Over 2.5 Goals: -142 | Most Likely to Score: Nketiah (+135)
Wolves (+155) at Southampton (+195)
Over 2.5 Goals: +132 | Most Likely to Score: Onuachu (+135)
Newcastle (-185) at Bournemouth (+550)
Over 2.5 Goals: +100 | Most Likely to Score: Wilson (+145)
Matchweek 23 features two big-six sides, with Tottenham and Arsenal in action on a six-game main slate.
Arsenal (-230 to win) are the largest favorite on the slate, and Aleksander Mitrovic ($22) has the best odds to score (+100) of any player expected to be active on Saturday.
Newcastle (-185 to win) are the second-largest favorite, followed by Fulham (-115). Brighton (+100), Tottenham (+110), and Wolves (+155) round out the slate as slight favorites.
All eyes will be on Arsenal as they look to bounce back from their shocking loss to Everton last weekend. Despite their great season-long form, the Gunners' stars are actually available at a slight discount on Saturday, with both Bukayo Saka ($20) and Martin Odegaard ($19) on lower salaries than Harry Kane ($23), Mitrovic, and Callum Wilson ($21). The salary discount, combined with their outlook as the largest favorite on the slate, should make Arsenal's stars very popular.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Miguel Almiron, FWD/MID, Newcastle
FanDuel Salary: $17
Almiron enters this weekend on a five-game goal-scoring drought, with fewer than 10 FanDuel points in four of his last five games. Prior to this poor run, he had scored eight total goals over his last nine matches, including finding the back of the net in five of his last six. His lack of recent production should keep his draft percentage low despite a nice matchup with a struggling Bournemouth side.
Bournemouth are winless in their last eight fixtures across all competitions, with seven losses and one draw over that stretch. They haven't kept a clean sheet since early December and are conceding 2.04 goals per match this season, the most in the Premier League. Newcastle have been far from sharp in the final third lately, with just two goals in their last five, but a clash with Bournemouth provides them an opportunity to reverse that trend.
In addition to his recent struggles, Almiron also finds himself sharing a salary range with several in-form players, including Brighton's Kaoru Mitoma ($18), Arsenal's Eddie Nketiah ($18), and Leicester City's James Maddison ($18). With a chance to pop at a low draft percentage, Almiron is worth consideration for large-field tournaments this weekend.
Ivan Toney, FWD/MID, Brentford
FanDuel Salary: $17
Toney rarely winds up with a low draft percentage, but a meeting with Arsenal could cause that to happen. Brentford are the largest underdogs on the slate for their match at the Emirates. With all eyes on Arsenal's stars, Toney and Brentford could go overlooked.
While an Arsenal bounceback is likely, there is also a chance they struggle again. Arsenal dominated possession in their loss to Everton (71% to 29%) but were nearly equaled on shots (15 to 12) and recorded one fewer shot on target. If they bring a similar effort to Saturday's clash, they will be in a tough spot versus a Brentford side that is undefeated in its last nine Premier League games and has the second-most goals scored over the last six matchweeks.
Toney needs little introduction. He has 13 goals and 3 assists in 19 appearances this season and is averaging 23.88 FanDuel points per match. The matchup with Arsenal has also lowered his salary to a reasonable $17, providing a discount from the slate's top tier.
With the masses likely loading up on Arsenal, don't sleep on the potential for an in-form Brentford side to give the Gunners a difficult time on Saturday.
Dejan Kulusevski, FWD/MID, Tottenham
FanDuel Salary: $15
Tottenham enter Saturday off back-to-back one-goal wins over Fulham and Manchester City and are looking to win three Premier League matches in a row for the first time this season as they take on Leicester.
After a tough stretch from Boxing Day to mid-January, Leicester have started to turn things around with a two-game unbeaten run. But they are still struggling to defend. The Foxes have conceded 12 goals over their last six fixtures and have conceded the third-most goals in the league (37) so far this season.
Kulusevski has just one goal in his last six starts but has been heavily involved for Spurs, recording a combined 10 shots, 4 shots on target, and 12 chances created during that stretch. Those who turn to Spurs Saturday will likely roster Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min ($17), making Kulusevski a sneaky-good pivot off Tottenham's headliners.
Kulusevski's odds to score (+290) are better than those of Southampton's James Ward-Prowse ($16), who is usually a popular option and is salaried near Kulusevski. He also provides a salary discount over his more popular teammates and gets you exposure to a big-six side in a solid matchup.
