Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 23
Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
West Ham vs. Chelsea
West Ham to win +240
This is an interesting matchup as both teams have been disappointing this season. Chelsea are just 8W-6D-7L, good enough for only 9th place in the league, while West Ham are battling relegation at 5-4-12 and are currently in 17th.
However, if we look at FBref’s expected goal difference (xGD), we can see that West Ham might be the most unlucky team in the league this season with a +3.3 xGD, which is eighth-best. On the flip side, Chelsea have perhaps been slightly lucky, as their xGD of -1.9 ranks 10th-best.
Of course, xGD is not a tell-all metric, but the disparity between West Ham’s xGD and their actual results is quite drastic. The Hammers will also have home-field advantage, which could prove huge as they are 4-1-5 at home this season, compared to Chelsea’s 3-3-5 away record. Lastly, West Ham will also be the more desperate side as they are battling relegation.
All in all, West Ham should have a great chance to win this game.
Crystal Palace vs. Brighton
Brighton to win +100
Brighton are having a spectacular season, as they are in sixth place with games in hand on the teams ahead of them in the table. They have a chance for a top-four finish and a truly special season, and their xGD of +6.2 is tied for fifth-best in the league.
They face a tricky away match against an always pesky Crystal Palace team, but Palace are only 6-6-9 this season with a -10.0 xGD, which ranks 18th in the EPL. They’re a mediocre team at home (4-3-4), while Brighton are actually quite good on the road (5-2-3).
Brighton have also gone 3-1-0 in their last four and are in good form. They will be looking for the full three points to keep their momentum going, and I like them at this +100 price.
Fulham vs. Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest to win +320
Fulham are having a strong season and currently sit in eighth in the table. But Forest are no slouch, trailing Fulham by 8 points but with a game in hand.
xGD suggests there is not much separating the two sides, as Fulham are at -7.7 xGD and Forest at -7.9.
Forest are in much better form than Fulham, going 3-1-0 in their last four games, while Fulham are 0-1-2 in their last three. Fulham have proven themselves to be the slightly better side throughout the course of the season, but there may not be as large of a gap between these two sides as the table indicates.
Forest should have a great chance to at least draw in this one and splitting the bet between a draw and a Forest win still provides favorable odds.