SOCCER

Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 13

Tom Sokol Nov 4th, 2022
Arsenal and Chelsea meet up Sunday in a high-profile match at Stamford Bridge. How should you bet on that one, and which other bets need to be on your radar?

Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see where we can zero in.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.

Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford

Nottingham Forest to win +175

Nottingham Forest are currently in last place in the league table with a 2W-3D-8L record and a league-worst -20 goal difference. However, Forest have had decent success at home. In the split, they own a 2-1-3 record and are only -2 on goal difference. Home-field advantage could prove critical for them in this match.

Forest face Brentford, who are 3-6-4 overall but are 0-3-3 with a -9 goal difference in away games this season. The Bees' success has been completely based off their home games, and they play like a relegation team away from home. Plus, Brentford will be without the suspended Ivan Toney, which is a big blow to their attack.

Forest have a great chance to take three points in this game, and they will be eager for a chance to move up in the table.

Leeds vs. Bournemouth

Leeds to win -135

This game is interesting, as Leeds are favorites despite being below Bournemouth in the table, trailing them by a point.

However, Bournemouth are last in the league in FBref’s expected goal difference (xGD) by a wide margin at -13.4 (19th place is Nottingham Forest at -8.8), and they have lost three straight matches.

Leeds come into this game with good momentum as they defeated Liverpool 2-1 away from home last weekend. Leeds have had mixed results this season, but they have a +0.2 xGD, which indicates they have been much better than their spot at 15th in the table would suggest. Leeds also have home-field advantage, and they should be able to win this game.

Chelsea vs. Arsenal

Arsenal to win +170

Arsenal are looking like they could legitimately challenge Manchester City for the title this season, as they remain in first place 12 games into the campaign with a 10-1-1 record and a +19 goal differential! The Gunners also have the second-best xGD in the league at +11.1, while Chelsea have a -1.4 xGD.

Chelsea have a decent 6-3-3 record and are in sixth place, but their xGD indicates this may not be sustainable. Chelsea got blown out by Brighton 4-1 last week, and they are clearly a step below the Gunners this year.

The Blues do have home-field advantage, which matters, but even that is not enough to pick against Arsenal this week, as the Gunners have simply been on fire.