FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 11/5/22
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 11 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Fulham (+1700) at Manchester City (-800)
Over 2.5 Goals: -350 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-260)
Bournemouth (+360) at Leeds (-135)
Over 2.5 Goals: -128 | Most Likely to Score: Bamford (+110)
Brighton (+115) at Wolves (+240)
Over 2.5 Goals: +104 | Most Likely to Score: Welbeck (+230)
Brentford (+160) at Nottingham Forest (+175)
Over 2.5 Goals: +100 | Most Likely to Score: Awoniyi (+220)
Leicester City (+200) at Everton (+135)
Over 2.5 Goals: -104 | Most Likely to Score: Vardy/Calvert-Lewin (+170)
A quick glance through the fixture list makes one thing very obvious: Manchester City are going to be wildly popular. City are a laughable -667 to score at least two goals, -200 to net three-plus and +125 to get at least four goals. Outside of City, only one side -- Leeds at -143 -- is better than +110 to score at least twice.
Erling Haaland ($24; -260 to score/-460 to get a goal or assist) and Kevin De Bruyne ($21; +155/-270) are the standouts for City, but Haaland is an injury question mark. These two have slate-breaking upside -- as is always the case. Assuming he plays, Haaland will be mega-chalk, but he's proven to be a scary player to fade with 17 goals and three assists already this EPL campaign. KDB could handle pens if Haaland is sidelined.
Whether or not Haaland plays, City are probably going to get their goals, so Haaland sitting would boost the goal-scoring chances for everyone else. The betting numbers point us to Riyad Mahrez ($17; +100/-230), although he's far from a lock to start. Phil Foden ($21; +130/-165) and Julian Alvarez ($20; -140/-250) are superb choices if they're in the lineup. Alvarez would likely step into Haaland's place if the Norwegian can't play. Don't sleep on Ilkay Gundogan ($16; +195/-105), either.
Leeds are the other side I want a piece of. Leeds got a massive win at Anfield last time out, and now they have a key clash at home versus Bournemouth. It's an important bout for both sides as these two teams are relegation candidates.
Leeds are -135 to win and -143 to score at least twice. Patrick Bamford ($16; +110/-145) has the top goal odds for Leeds and is easy to like at his modest salary. Rodrigo ($19; +180/+100) and Brenden Aaronson ($14; +350/+135) are quality options, as well. Aaronson is someone I'll have a lot of, as his salary fits well next to City's stars. Two matches ago against Fulham, he created seven chances. He should be on the ball a lot in this one, too.
After those two squads, things are wide open. There's no side I feel like I just have to get exposure to, but there are a few players I'm into.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($15; +170/+120) and Jamie Vardy ($16; +170/+105) are two such guys, and they're facing each other in the Everton-Leicester matchup. Vardy's goal/assist odds are intriguing, and with Leicester a road underdog, he might slip through the cracks. Calvert-Lewin figures to garner some love on this slate, and he will likely start up top for the Toffees.
If Jesse Lingard ($9; +410/+220) starts, he's a smashing value play. Forest are home to a Brentford side that will be sans Ivan Toney. That boosts Forest's chances, and they need every point they can get. Lingard hasn't done much this season, but he can be a creative force when he's at his best.
Brighton are coming off a dazzling performance versus Chelsea but are listed at just +115 to win at Wolves. To be honest, I'm not quite sure how to handle Brighton, but if it seems like they will be overlooked, I'll be tempted to grab a piece of them. The problem is their salaries are inflated a bit, but there is one big exception -- Adam Lallana ($9; +550/+310). Lallana is a stellar low-salary play if he starts in a number-10 role.
Added time -- Aleksandar Mitrovic ($17; +240/+190) will likely be feeding on scraps at City, but he's a fun GPP play. He'll surely come with a low draft percentage and can trouble City on set pieces. He'll take penalties, too. ... Yoane Wissa ($11; +280/+160) and Bryan Mbeumo ($15; +360/+170) are projected to start in a front two for Brentford, per WhoScored, with Toney out. Wissa's salary comes in handy. ... Everton's Demari Gray ($13; +400/+200) is a solid value pick who can come through versus a Foxes defense that's struggled this season. ... Dominic Solanke ($16; +250/+180) has the best goal odds for Bournemouth.
Joao Cancelo ($14) is out on his own as the best attacking full-back. He will have plenty of chances to get forward versus Fulham and makes sense as a stacking partner for any City attacker -- particularly Haaland (if Haaland plays). Cancelo is +135 to score or assist.
Fulham's Tim Ream ($9) and Issa Diop ($9) offer nice floors as they should be very busy at City. Ream scored 14.3 FanDuel points earlier this year in a similar kind of matchup at Spurs.
Leeds' Pascal Struijk ($13) is averaging 16.2 FanDuel points per match and can generate more attacking points than usual thanks to the matchup with the Cherries.
Leicester's James Justin ($9) brings some attacking upside to the table at Everton. It's a matchup that should afford him opportunities to push forward.
Added time -- James Tarkowski ($15) just keeps posting good fantasy days. He's averaging 18.0 FanDuel points per game, but he might not be tasked with as much defensive work in this matchup with Leicester. ... I'm intrigued by the attacking upside for Renan Lodi ($9) if he gets into Forest's starting XI. ... Pervis Estupinan ($9) was outstanding last time out, creating four chances en route to an output of 24.3 FanDuel points. He's been pretty productive when given a chance to start, so another good day could be in order if he's in the lineup at Wolves.
Ederson ($13) is the guy to make room for if you want the best shot at the clean-sheet points. City are -120 to blank Fulham and -800 to win. No other side is better than +162 to keep a clean sheet or -135 to win. The $13 salary isn't bad at all. I think there's enough value on this slate that I'll make Ederson a priority.
Illan Meslier ($12) is the next-best option. Leeds have the second-best win odds (-135) and second-best clean-sheet odds (+162). Meslier put forth a top-notch display last week in Leeds' win at Liverpool, recording an astounding nine saves. While a home matchup with Bournemouth is a great spot, Meslier is just a $1 drop from Ederson. That puts him in GPP pivot territory for me.
Dean Henderson ($10) has my eye. Forest get a Toney-less Brentford side. Toney has eight goals this year; no one else on Brentford has more than two. His absence makes this a much friendlier matchup for Henderson.
Added time -- Jordan Pickford ($11) is capable of coming through against Leicester. The Foxes have enough attacking talent to keep Pickford busy, giving him a shot at good save volume. ... Brighton's Robert Sanchez ($11) has the third-best clean-sheet odds (+185). Wolves have mustered only six goals in 13 matches, and Brighton are once again getting it done defensively.