FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 10/22/22
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features three matches. All betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.
Slate Overview
Brighton (+1200) at Manchester City (-550)
Over 2.5 Goals: -230 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-210)
Crystal Palace (+190) at Everton (+155)
Over 2.5 Goals: +118 | Most Likely to Score: Calvert-Lewin (+190)
Manchester United (+250) at Chelsea (+110)
Over 2.5 Goals: -110 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang (+145)
Matchweek 11 features three big-six sides, with Manchester City, Manchester United, and Chelsea all in action.
Manchester City (-550 to win) are the largest favorite on the slate, and Erling Haaland ($24) has the best odds to score (-210) of any player expected to be active on Saturday.
Chelsea (+110 to win) are the second-biggest favorite, followed by Everton (+155).
This slate provides both a marquee matchup between Manchester United and Chelsea, and a heavily favored Erling Haaland in a small player pool. Haaland will be extremely popular. He is averaging an absurd 40.88 FanDuel points per game and has scored above 60 FanDuel points in three of his 10 starts. Fading him is about as risky as fading anyone will ever be, but he has scored 27 or fewer FanDuel points in three of his last four matches. If he does so again on Saturday, a fade could be successful. Of course, the one exception in that span was an 87.3 FanDuel-point game, so the risk is real.
With that in mind, here are two players to consider -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Demarai Gray, FWD/MID, Everton
FanDuel Salary: $12
Everton enter Saturday's clash with Crystal Palace with a three-match losing streak, while Palace has won two of their last three. Everton's consecutive defeats came against Manchester United, Tottenham, and Newcastle, a tough run of opponents. As home favorites on Saturday, the Toffees have a chance to bounce back and will likely be overlooked due to their recent results.
Gray has been heavily involved for Everton this season, taking the lion's share of their corner kicks and nearly all of their free kicks. That role has resulted in 11.06 FanDuel points per game despite only one goal and no assists. In his previous three matches before Everton's losing streak began, Gray produced 18.2, 12.3, and 12.3 FanDuel points. His production on Saturday should be higher than his average, and his salary is very affordable.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($13) should be back in the starting lineup on Saturday after playing 73 minutes against Newcastle in his first start since May after missing time with a knee injury. His salary is easy to love given his projected role and talent, and he should be decently popular as a value option. Pairing him and Gray together creates a duo with solid upside at modest salaries and low projected draft percentages.
Marcus Rashford, FWD/MID, Manchester United
FanDuel Salary: $17
Saturday's showdown between Manchester United and Chelsea is one of the fixtures of the season thus far. The two sides are separated by a single point, and both have just one loss in their last six matches. However, the difference in strength of schedule between the two sides is large.
Chelsea has played just one big-six side all season, a 2-2 draw with Tottenham back in August, while Manchester United has played four, beating Liverpool, Arsenal, and Tottenham while losing badly to Manchester City. Manchester United will be Chelsea's biggest test of the Premier League season so far, while United has passed a similar test already, multiple times.
Despite United's impressive victory on Wednesday, Rashford could go overlooked this weekend after his lack of finishing was a topic of conversation following the match. He failed to put away multiple clear-cut chances, opting for powerful shots that were parried away rather than accuracy to the corners. He finished the game with three shots on goal and 16.3 FanDuel points.
Rashford has had an up-and-down season, but he has produced against elite opposition, scoring twice against Arsenal (53.0 FanDuel points) and once against Liverpool (25.0 FanDuel points). A bounce-back performance is certainly possible, and with Cristiano Ronaldo out of the squad after his antics on Wednesday, Rashford could play the full 90 minutes against Chelsea.
